Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
28.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W63-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W42-16 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W42-10 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-34 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L35-40 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W27-25 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:53% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:87% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:61% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:73% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 19.8% | 90.3% |
| 6-2 | 41.0% | 25.8% |
| 5-3 | 29.5% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 8.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 28.6% (+0.2%) | 28.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 27.9% (-0.5%) | 28.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 28.3% (-0.1%) | 28.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 27.6% (-0.9%) | 33.4% (+5.0%) | |
| 27.2% (-1.2%) | 28.8% (+0.4%) | |
| 28.0% (-0.4%) | 31.2% (+2.8%) | |
| 44.4% (+16.0%) | 10.5% (-17.9%) | |
| 28.9% (+0.5%) | 27.8% (-0.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ball State
Auburn
South Carolina
Arkansas
Texas
Mississippi StateAlabamaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaCCG: 44.4% • Scenario: 52.9%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
90.2%
17.8%Any 1 loss
29.0%
38.9%
90.8%
2.0%
39.5%
6.5%39.2%
0.9%
33.2%
2.7%
28.0%
15.8%
11.3%
11.0%Any 2 losses
26.3%
4.1%45.6%
<0.1%39.3%
0.7%34.3%
0.3%29.3%
1.8%11.6%
1.3%0.9%
0.1%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13