Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W51-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W30-27 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L10-41 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W45-3 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:80% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:13% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:52% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:53% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:84% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:83% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 2.0% | 48.0% |
| 6-2 | 18.6% | 2.3% |
| 5-3 | 37.1% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 29.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 10.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5% (+0.1%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-1.2%) | 1.7% (+0.3%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.1%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.2%) | 2.3% (+0.9%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.3%) | 1.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.1%) | 2.2% (+0.8%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.1%) | 1.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ball StateMissouri
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Georgia
Mississippi State
Alabama
FloridaCCG: 20.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Missouri
TexasCCG: 1.8% • Scenario: 59.6%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
48.0%
2.0%Any 1 loss
2.3%
18.6%
8.5%
0.5%7.0%
0.4%
6.2%
1.8%5.8%
0.4%3.7%
1.9%1.1%
13.6%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13