Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
33.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:34% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:81% | |
| 5 | 9/25 | Win prob:67% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:79% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:93% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:37% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:66% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:57% | |
| 12/13 | Win prob:59% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 4.5% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 18.9% | 80.7% |
| 7-2 | 31.7% | 35.9% |
| 6-3 | 27.6% | 7.1% |
| 5-4 | 13.1% | 0.1% |
| 4-5 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.9%Any 1 loss
87.8%
6.3%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
1.7%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.1%89.9%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%83.8%
0.1%82.7%
0.4%82.4%
0.2%82.1%
0.7%82.0%
0.2%69.2%
1.5%Any 2 losses
65.5%
17.5%100.0%
1.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.1%
0.1%90.8%
<0.1%89.7%
0.2%89.5%
0.1%88.1%
<0.1%87.7%
0.3%87.0%
0.1%85.6%
0.4%85.0%
<0.1%84.8%
0.5%84.6%
0.2%84.2%
0.4%84.0%
0.2%83.3%
<0.1%83.1%
0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.6%
0.8%82.2%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%81.1%
1.3%80.0%
<0.1%79.9%
0.4%79.4%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%71.1%
1.0%70.9%
2.8%70.7%
0.2%68.7%
0.9%58.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%23.9%
<0.1%22.6%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%18.7%
0.1%18.6%
0.2%18.4%
<0.1%18.0%
0.2%16.1%
<0.1%15.8%
0.2%15.7%
<0.1%15.0%
0.1%13.9%
0.3%13.3%
0.4%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.8%12.0%
<0.1%11.6%
1.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.1%
0.3%Any 3 losses
41.9%
24.4%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%89.4%
<0.1%89.3%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.1%
0.1%86.7%
0.3%86.7%
<0.1%86.4%
0.6%85.7%
<0.1%84.7%
0.2%84.5%
0.1%84.3%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%84.1%
<0.1%84.1%
<0.1%83.7%
0.2%83.3%
0.3%83.2%
0.2%82.9%
<0.1%82.2%
<0.1%81.4%
0.4%81.3%
0.9%81.0%
0.1%80.5%
<0.1%80.4%
0.7%80.0%
<0.1%77.5%
<0.1%77.2%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.9%
0.3%71.6%
0.6%70.7%
0.1%70.1%
1.4%69.0%
2.0%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.4%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.2%
0.1%25.9%
0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.8%
0.1%24.7%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.5%
0.2%23.2%
0.2%22.6%
0.2%21.4%
0.3%20.8%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.7%
0.1%18.3%
0.2%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.8%
0.3%17.7%
0.6%17.7%
<0.1%17.6%
0.2%17.6%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.5%
0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.1%
0.3%14.8%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%14.2%
0.1%14.1%
0.8%13.9%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.5%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
0.2%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.3%
0.7%11.1%
0.5%10.9%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.8%
2.2%10.4%
<0.1%10.2%
0.3%10.1%
1.4%10.1%
<0.1%9.6%
0.5%9.4%
0.9%9.3%
0.4%9.2%
0.2%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
25.4%
16.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
0.1%89.6%
<0.1%88.3%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%82.9%
0.1%82.1%
0.5%81.8%
<0.1%81.6%
0.3%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.7%
0.1%77.3%
<0.1%75.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.0%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%69.2%
0.2%67.8%
<0.1%67.3%
1.0%66.7%
<0.1%66.2%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.5%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.9%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%22.8%
0.1%22.5%
<0.1%22.5%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.4%
0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%20.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.3%
<0.1%19.3%
<0.1%19.1%
0.3%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.6%
0.1%17.4%
0.2%17.3%
0.2%17.1%
0.2%17.0%
0.1%16.8%
0.4%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.4%
0.2%15.0%
<0.1%14.9%
0.5%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
0.2%13.6%
0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.4%
0.2%12.3%
0.2%12.2%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%12.0%
0.2%11.9%
1.0%11.9%
<0.1%11.9%
0.7%11.8%
0.4%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
0.1%10.7%
0.3%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
0.5%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.1%9.3%
0.4%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
1.5%8.9%
<0.1%8.8%
1.1%8.7%
0.4%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22