Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
42.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:86% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:60% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:62% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:86% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:97% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:79% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:65% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:77% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:52% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:67% | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:66% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 7.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 24.3% | 94.9% |
| 6-2 | 32.6% | 35.9% |
| 5-3 | 23.3% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 9.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.1%Any 1 loss
96.5%
10.3%
100.0%
1.3%
100.0%
1.4%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
0.3%
100.0%
<0.1%
99.5%
0.4%
98.1%
0.6%
97.8%
0.6%
97.8%
1.0%
94.9%
1.2%
93.0%
1.1%
91.5%
2.1%Any 2 losses
70.5%
22.0%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.7%
0.4%98.6%
0.4%98.6%
0.3%98.5%
0.3%98.4%
<0.1%98.0%
0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.5%
0.4%97.4%
<0.1%97.4%
0.7%97.2%
0.7%97.1%
0.1%97.0%
0.1%96.7%
0.2%95.4%
0.2%95.3%
0.8%94.3%
0.7%94.2%
0.1%93.5%
<0.1%93.2%
0.2%93.1%
0.7%93.0%
1.3%92.7%
0.1%92.5%
0.8%91.0%
1.2%89.1%
0.3%73.7%
<0.1%64.5%
0.1%63.6%
<0.1%61.6%
0.1%59.8%
0.2%59.5%
0.2%59.3%
<0.1%56.4%
0.3%54.6%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%46.6%
0.4%46.1%
0.2%45.8%
<0.1%44.1%
0.3%44.1%
0.2%42.8%
0.3%41.7%
0.3%38.7%
0.4%38.5%
0.6%37.6%
0.5%36.9%
0.6%35.0%
0.6%33.4%
1.0%31.6%
<0.1%26.2%
0.6%21.8%
1.1%21.3%
1.0%Any 3 losses
46.7%
22.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.6%
0.1%98.6%
<0.1%98.3%
0.1%98.2%
0.1%97.8%
0.4%97.5%
0.1%97.1%
<0.1%97.1%
0.2%96.9%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.6%
0.2%95.7%
0.1%95.6%
0.1%95.6%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%95.1%
0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.4%
0.1%94.3%
0.4%94.2%
<0.1%94.0%
0.5%93.2%
0.2%92.0%
<0.1%91.9%
0.1%91.8%
0.8%91.5%
0.2%91.3%
<0.1%90.9%
0.2%90.1%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%75.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.2%
<0.1%64.0%
0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.0%
<0.1%58.4%
0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
0.1%57.5%
<0.1%57.2%
0.2%57.1%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.5%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%51.1%
<0.1%50.5%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.2%49.1%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.1%
0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.5%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.2%
<0.1%44.2%
<0.1%43.6%
0.2%43.0%
0.2%42.1%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%40.9%
0.4%40.8%
0.2%40.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.8%
0.2%39.7%
<0.1%39.6%
0.3%39.6%
0.2%39.3%
0.2%38.1%
0.2%38.1%
0.1%38.0%
0.4%37.8%
0.4%37.8%
0.2%37.8%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.0%
0.3%36.7%
0.1%36.6%
<0.1%36.5%
0.4%36.4%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.8%
0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.6%
0.1%35.6%
0.3%35.3%
<0.1%35.3%
0.3%35.0%
<0.1%34.9%
0.2%34.7%
<0.1%34.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.1%
0.6%32.8%
0.4%32.5%
0.7%31.9%
0.2%31.3%
<0.1%30.5%
<0.1%30.5%
0.2%30.5%
<0.1%30.4%
0.4%30.2%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.3%
0.7%23.4%
0.4%23.2%
0.7%23.1%
0.7%22.6%
0.1%22.1%
0.7%20.3%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.8%
0.2%16.8%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.1%
0.2%1.1%
0.3%1.1%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.3%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
32.6%
10.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.1%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.3%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%59.1%
0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.3%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.8%
0.1%45.6%
0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.2%
0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.8%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%38.9%
0.1%38.4%
0.2%37.9%
<0.1%37.8%
<0.1%37.6%
0.4%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
0.2%35.7%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.7%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%34.0%
0.2%33.6%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%31.8%
0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.7%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%31.0%
0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.2%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.0%
<0.1%25.8%
0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.2%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.9%
<0.1%22.8%
0.1%22.6%
0.1%22.1%
0.4%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.8%
0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.6%
0.4%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22