American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-08-22

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1TulaneTULN0-00-046.5%
T1MemphisMEM0-00-042.3%
T1ArmyARMY0-00-033.1%
T1South FloridaUSF0-00-025.4%
T1NavyNAVY0-00-025.0%
T1UT San AntonioUTSA0-00-015.5%
T1North TexasUNT0-00-04.8%
T1East CarolinaECU0-00-04.7%
T1RiceRICE0-00-01.2%
T1UABUAB0-00-01.0%
T1TempleTEM0-00-00.5%
T1FL AtlanticFAU0-00-00.1%
T1CharlotteCLT0-00-0<0.1%
T1TulsaTLSA0-00-0-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-08-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

114.3%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
29.8%
ArmyARMY
vs
TULNTulane
38.8%
ArmyARMY
vs
MEMMemphis
47.7%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane
57.3%
South FloridaUSF
vs
TULNTulane
66.7%
MemphisMEM
vs
USFSouth Florida
76.0%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
85.1%
ArmyARMY
vs
NAVYNavy
94.7%
ArmyARMY
vs
USFSouth Florida
104.3%
TulaneTULN
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
113.8%
MemphisMEM
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
123.0%
NavyNAVY
vs
USFSouth Florida
132.5%
ArmyARMY
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
142.3%
South FloridaUSF
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
151.7%
NavyNAVY
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio

Data from 2025-08-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 46.5%
Game
TulaneCCG OddsAway
TulaneCCG OddsHome

Data from 2025-08-22 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-3Overall
TulaneTULN--100%-90.3%-20.5%-0.2%46.5%
MemphisMEM--100%-94.9%-35.9%-0.4%42.3%
ArmyARMY100%80.7%-35.9%-7.1%-<0.1%-33.1%
South FloridaUSF--100%-89.4%-27.3%-0.2%25.4%
NavyNAVY100%82.8%-42.3%-6.9%-<0.1%-25.0%
UT San AntonioUTSA--100%-95.1%-40.8%-0.8%15.5%
North TexasUNT--100%-89.5%-29.5%-0.3%4.8%
East CarolinaECU--100%-90.2%-19.0%-<0.1%4.7%
RiceRICE--100%-93.0%-29.1%-0.2%1.2%
UABUAB--100%-94.1%-34.3%-0.3%1.0%
TempleTEM--100%-85.9%-35.7%-0.3%0.5%
FL AtlanticFAU--100%-100%-39.6%-0.7%0.1%
CharlotteCLT----100%-43.7%-1.1%<0.1%
TulsaTLSA----------

Data from 2025-08-22 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-34-54-43-63-52-72-61-81-70-90-8Avg Wins
ArmyARMY(0-0)4.5%18.9%0.0%31.7%0.0%27.6%0.0%13.1%0.0%3.5%0.0%0.6%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.6
TulaneTULN(0-0)-0.0%10.9%0.0%31.6%0.0%34.0%0.0%17.9%0.0%4.8%0.0%0.7%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.0%6.2
NavyNAVY(0-0)2.1%11.7%0.0%26.3%0.0%30.5%0.0%20.0%0.0%7.5%0.0%1.7%0.0%0.2%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.1
MemphisMEM(0-0)-0.0%7.4%0.0%24.3%0.0%32.6%0.0%23.3%0.0%9.7%0.0%2.4%0.0%0.3%0.0%<0.1%-0.0%5.9
South FloridaUSF(0-0)-0.0%3.1%0.0%15.6%0.0%30.1%0.0%29.8%0.0%15.7%0.0%4.8%0.0%0.8%0.0%<0.1%-<0.1%5.4
UT San AntonioUTSA(0-0)-0.0%0.9%0.0%6.9%0.0%19.1%0.0%29.1%0.0%25.7%0.0%13.4%0.0%4.1%0.0%0.7%-<0.1%4.7
East CarolinaECU(0-0)-0.0%0.2%0.0%2.5%0.0%11.4%0.0%26.2%0.0%32.0%0.0%20.4%0.0%6.3%0.0%0.9%-<0.1%4.2
North TexasUNT(0-0)-0.0%0.2%0.0%2.1%0.0%9.2%0.0%21.4%0.0%29.3%0.0%23.6%0.0%11.2%0.0%2.8%-0.3%3.9
RiceRICE(0-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%2.8%0.0%11.1%0.0%24.8%0.0%31.2%0.0%21.3%0.0%7.5%-1.1%3.2
UABUAB(0-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%2.1%0.0%9.1%0.0%22.1%0.0%31.3%0.0%24.4%0.0%9.5%-1.3%3.0
TempleTEM(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%1.0%0.0%5.3%0.0%16.9%0.0%30.2%0.0%29.9%0.0%14.2%-2.3%2.7
FL AtlanticFAU(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%2.5%0.0%11.0%0.0%27.6%0.0%35.3%0.0%20.2%-3.1%2.3
CharlotteCLT(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%6.0%0.0%19.0%0.0%33.5%0.0%29.9%-10.3%1.8
TulsaTLSA(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.5%0.0%3.9%0.0%17.8%0.0%41.0%-36.9%0.9

Data from 2025-08-22 • SportsSimulate.com