Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
46.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:85% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:55% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:73% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:12% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:96% | |
| 7 | 10/09 | Win prob:83% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:63% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:62% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:48% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 10.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 31.6% | 90.3% |
| 6-2 | 34.0% | 20.5% |
| 5-3 | 17.9% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 4.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.4%Any 1 loss
97.5%
5.1%
100.0%
3.2%
100.0%
0.4%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
94.7%
<0.1%
94.4%
<0.1%
91.2%
0.3%
90.0%
<0.1%
88.3%
0.5%
87.5%
0.3%Any 2 losses
87.9%
17.1%100.0%
2.7%100.0%
1.2%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%96.9%
0.2%96.2%
0.2%96.1%
0.2%95.6%
<0.1%94.7%
0.5%94.6%
0.1%94.6%
0.7%93.2%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.8%
2.0%92.6%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.9%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%91.1%
<0.1%90.5%
0.3%89.4%
0.4%88.8%
3.6%88.2%
2.0%84.3%
0.2%83.0%
0.2%78.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%34.1%
<0.1%34.1%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.3%
<0.1%16.7%
0.1%16.4%
0.3%14.0%
0.3%13.9%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
60.5%
27.5%100.0%
1.0%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
0.1%98.2%
0.1%98.1%
0.2%97.6%
0.2%97.5%
<0.1%97.1%
0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.3%
0.1%96.1%
<0.1%95.9%
0.5%95.6%
0.2%94.9%
0.5%94.1%
<0.1%93.5%
1.7%93.5%
0.7%92.9%
0.4%92.9%
0.3%92.3%
<0.1%91.8%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%88.3%
0.7%88.1%
0.7%87.9%
2.9%87.6%
0.4%87.4%
1.6%86.4%
<0.1%86.2%
1.4%85.7%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%57.5%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%41.6%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.6%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.1%
0.1%33.4%
0.4%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
0.1%30.7%
0.1%30.2%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.8%
0.2%28.6%
0.3%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
0.3%25.6%
0.6%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.8%
0.1%24.7%
0.4%24.2%
0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.1%
0.4%21.1%
<0.1%20.1%
0.7%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%17.9%
1.2%17.4%
<0.1%17.1%
2.2%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
0.1%16.0%
0.2%16.0%
<0.1%14.6%
0.3%14.0%
0.1%12.6%
<0.1%11.8%
0.2%11.1%
2.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
37.6%
20.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%94.5%
0.1%94.3%
<0.1%93.5%
0.1%93.3%
0.6%92.8%
0.3%92.5%
<0.1%92.1%
0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.4%
0.2%88.1%
0.6%86.8%
0.3%86.7%
1.1%86.5%
0.6%85.7%
<0.1%84.3%
0.3%84.2%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.3%
0.1%39.1%
<0.1%37.7%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.7%
0.1%36.5%
0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.2%
0.1%34.2%
0.3%34.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%32.2%
<0.1%32.1%
0.1%32.0%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%30.1%
0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.8%
0.3%28.6%
<0.1%28.0%
0.2%27.9%
0.2%27.7%
<0.1%27.6%
0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.9%
0.5%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.6%
<0.1%26.6%
<0.1%26.4%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.2%
<0.1%26.0%
<0.1%25.6%
0.4%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.3%
0.1%24.0%
0.1%23.8%
0.2%23.1%
<0.1%22.8%
<0.1%22.4%
0.3%22.2%
<0.1%21.5%
<0.1%21.2%
0.1%21.0%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.1%
0.2%19.1%
<0.1%18.6%
0.4%18.1%
0.3%17.6%
<0.1%17.5%
0.4%17.4%
<0.1%17.0%
1.8%16.8%
0.6%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.5%
<0.1%16.2%
0.7%16.0%
<0.1%16.0%
1.0%15.8%
0.2%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%12.7%
0.4%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
0.1%11.4%
<0.1%10.8%
1.8%10.2%
0.8%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22