Navy

NavyMidshipmen

0-0 T1st (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2025-08-22 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

25.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

NavySchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/30
vsVMIVMI
Win prob:90%
29/06
vsUABUAB
Win prob:83%
39/13
@TulsaTLSA
Win prob:93%
59/27
vsRiceRICE
Win prob:82%
610/04
vsAir ForceAF
Win prob:72%
710/11
@TempleTEM
Win prob:76%
910/25
vsFL AtlanticFAU
Win prob:89%
1011/01
@North TexasUNT
Win prob:61%
1111/08
@Notre DameND
Win prob:2%
1211/15
vsSouth FloridaUSF
Win prob:56%
1411/27
@MemphisMEM
Win prob:34%
12/13
vsArmyARMY(N)
Win prob:41%

Data from 2025-08-22 • SportsSimulate.com

NavyRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
2.1%
100.0%
8-1
11.7%
82.8%
7-2
26.3%
42.3%
6-3
30.5%
6.9%
5-4
20.0%
0.0%
4-5
7.5%
0%
3-6
1.7%
0%
2-7
0.2%
0%
1-8
0.0%
0%
0-9
0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-08-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Navy CCG Opponents

if Navy makes the CCG

TulaneTulane
32.7%
MemphisMemphis
25.6%
ArmyArmy
21.4%
South FloridaSouth Florida
12.9%
UTSAUT San Antonio
7.3%

Data from 2025-08-22 • SportsSimulate.com

NavyThis Week's Impact

Game
NavyCCG OddsAway
NavyCCG OddsHome

Data from 2025-08-22 • SportsSimulate.com

NavyLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Navy CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
98.6%
1.5%
Notre Dame
100.0%
1.3%
Air Force
100.0%
<0.1%
Army
100.0%
<0.1%
VMI
100.0%
<0.1%
UAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Temple
100.0%
<0.1%
Tulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
South Florida
88.2%
<0.1%
North Texas
87.0%
<0.1%
Rice
80.0%
<0.1%
Memphis
72.2%
<0.1%
FL Atlantic
66.7%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
83.0%
8.4%
ArmyNotre Dame
100.0%
1.8%
Air ForceNotre Dame
100.0%
0.5%
Notre DameVMI
100.0%
0.1%
ArmyUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmy
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyRice
100.0%
<0.1%
MemphisVMI
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyVMI
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFL Atlantic
100.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaVMI
100.0%
<0.1%
TempleVMI
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceVMI
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL Atlantic
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmySouth Florida
91.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameRice
87.8%
0.3%
ArmyNorth Texas
86.2%
<0.1%
Notre DameUAB
85.3%
0.3%
Notre DameTulsa
84.2%
0.1%
North TexasNotre Dame
84.1%
0.8%
Notre DameTemple
82.8%
0.4%
FL AtlanticNotre Dame
82.1%
0.2%
Notre DameSouth Florida
77.4%
1.0%
Air ForceMemphis
76.5%
<0.1%
North TexasVMI
75.0%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphis
72.1%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre Dame
70.6%
2.5%
ArmyTemple
66.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth Texas
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth Texas
50.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTemple
33.3%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticMemphis
25.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaTemple
20.0%
<0.1%
MemphisTemple
19.1%
<0.1%
South FloridaUAB
16.7%
<0.1%
MemphisNorth Texas
14.3%
<0.1%
MemphisRice
7.7%
<0.1%
MemphisSouth Florida
7.0%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
49.4%
20.8%
Air ForceArmyNotre Dame
100.0%
0.7%
Air ForceNorth TexasVMI
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameVMI
100.0%
0.2%
Air ForceNotre DameVMI
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth TexasUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyRice
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFL AtlanticTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyUABVMI
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceTempleVMI
100.0%
<0.1%
TulsaUABVMI
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyFL Atlantic
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceRiceUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceTulsaVMI
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameUABVMI
93.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRice
92.5%
0.1%
ArmyFL AtlanticNotre Dame
89.6%
0.2%
Notre DameRiceVMI
89.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleVMI
87.8%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameTemple
86.9%
0.6%
Air ForceNotre DameUAB
86.1%
0.1%
ArmyNotre DameUAB
85.8%
0.3%
FL AtlanticNotre DameVMI
85.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameRice
84.6%
0.4%
Air ForceNotre DameTemple
84.1%
0.2%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNotre Dame
83.6%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasNotre Dame
83.0%
1.2%
Air ForceNorth TexasNotre Dame
80.6%
0.3%
Notre DameTulsaVMI
80.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameTulsa
80.0%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameVMI
79.1%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameTulsa
77.1%
0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphis
75.0%
<0.1%
ArmySouth FloridaVMI
75.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameSouth Florida
74.3%
0.4%
ArmyNotre DameSouth Florida
74.0%
1.5%
Air ForceMemphisNotre Dame
73.5%
1.0%
MemphisNotre DameVMI
73.1%
0.3%
Notre DameSouth FloridaVMI
72.6%
0.1%
ArmyMemphisNotre Dame
69.0%
3.7%
ArmyNorth TexasVMI
66.7%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisVMI
66.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmySouth Florida
64.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceRiceTemple
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisVMI
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyTempleUAB
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmySouth FloridaTemple
42.9%
<0.1%
Notre DameTulsaUAB
40.9%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceTulsa
36.4%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisTulsa
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth TexasSouth Florida
33.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleTulsa
31.4%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameTemple
31.1%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameTulsa
30.8%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameUAB
28.2%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceTemple
27.3%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasTemple
27.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleUAB
26.3%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasRice
25.0%
<0.1%
ArmySouth FloridaUAB
25.0%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceTemple
25.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceRiceSouth Florida
25.0%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceSouth Florida
20.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasNotre Dame
19.8%
0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameRice
19.4%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceUAB
19.4%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameRice
18.8%
0.2%
Notre DameSouth FloridaTulsa
16.9%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameUAB
16.9%
0.2%
FL AtlanticNotre DameSouth Florida
16.7%
0.1%
Air ForceMemphisTemple
16.7%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameTemple
15.7%
0.3%
Notre DameRiceSouth Florida
12.9%
0.2%
ArmyFL AtlanticSouth Florida
12.5%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisTemple
12.5%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameTulsa
12.1%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre DameUAB
11.7%
0.5%
FL AtlanticMemphisNotre Dame
11.4%
0.3%
MemphisNotre DameRice
11.0%
0.5%
MemphisNotre DameTulsa
10.5%
0.2%
Air ForceMemphisSouth Florida
10.5%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisNorth Texas
10.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameSouth FloridaTemple
9.8%
0.3%
MemphisNotre DameTemple
9.6%
0.7%
Notre DameSouth FloridaUAB
9.5%
0.2%
MemphisNorth TexasNotre Dame
8.7%
1.6%
North TexasNotre DameSouth Florida
8.0%
0.6%
Air ForceMemphisNorth Texas
7.7%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre DameSouth Florida
5.7%
1.9%
ArmyNorth TexasSouth Florida
5.6%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisSouth Florida
5.1%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
24.1%
21.4%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameVMI
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisTempleVMI
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmySouth FloridaVMI
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFL AtlanticRiceVMI
100.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyTempleUAB
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasNotre DameVMI
89.7%
0.1%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameRice
87.9%
0.2%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameTemple
85.3%
0.2%
Air ForceNotre DameUABVMI
84.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameUAB
84.4%
0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceVMI
83.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyNorth TexasNotre Dame
83.2%
0.4%
ArmyNotre DameTempleVMI
83.1%
<0.1%
ArmyFL AtlanticNotre DameVMI
82.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth TexasNotre DameVMI
82.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameTulsa
81.5%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameRiceVMI
81.3%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameTulsaVMI
80.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNotre DameVMI
80.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyFL AtlanticNotre Dame
79.5%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameUABVMI
76.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyNotre DameSouth Florida
75.4%
0.6%
Air ForceArmyNorth TexasVMI
75.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameSouth FloridaVMI
73.9%
0.2%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameVMI
71.7%
0.4%
Air ForceNotre DameSouth FloridaVMI
71.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphisNotre Dame
70.6%
1.4%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameVMI
70.0%
0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameTempleVMI
66.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameTulsaVMI
66.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisNorth TexasVMI
66.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphisVMI
66.7%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNotre DameTempleVMI
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisRiceVMI
50.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyNorth TexasTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
FL AtlanticNorth TexasNotre DameVMI
38.5%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameRiceVMI
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyFL AtlanticSouth Florida
33.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleUABVMI
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyFL AtlanticMemphis
33.3%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameTulsaUAB
31.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth TexasNotre DameUAB
29.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameTempleUAB
29.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth TexasNotre DameTulsa
28.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNorth TexasNotre Dame
27.8%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameTempleUAB
27.6%
0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceTemple
27.3%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameRiceUAB
27.2%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceUAB
26.1%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameTempleTulsa
25.7%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisSouth FloridaVMI
25.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNotre DameUAB
25.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTempleTulsaVMI
25.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFL AtlanticNotre DameUAB
24.5%
<0.1%
ArmyFL AtlanticNotre DameRice
24.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasNotre DameRice
23.6%
0.3%
ArmyNotre DameRiceTulsa
23.3%
<0.1%
ArmyFL AtlanticNotre DameTemple
22.4%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameRiceTemple
20.5%
0.1%
North TexasNotre DameUABVMI
20.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphisRice
20.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameSouth FloridaTulsaVMI
20.0%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameTulsaVMI
20.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceTulsa
18.2%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasNotre DameUAB
17.9%
0.3%
Air ForceNotre DameTulsaUAB
16.7%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasNotre DameTemple
16.6%
0.4%
Air ForceNorth TexasNotre DameTemple
16.4%
0.1%
ArmyNotre DameSouth FloridaUAB
16.3%
0.3%
ArmyFL AtlanticNorth TexasNotre Dame
15.8%
0.2%
ArmyFL AtlanticNotre DameSouth Florida
15.6%
0.2%
Air ForceNotre DameTempleTulsa
15.4%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameTempleVMI
13.8%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasNotre DameTulsa
13.8%
0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameSouth FloridaTulsa
13.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth TexasNotre DameSouth Florida
13.7%
0.3%
Notre DameSouth FloridaTempleVMI
13.6%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameRiceSouth Florida
13.6%
0.3%
MemphisNotre DameTulsaVMI
13.3%
<0.1%
North TexasNotre DameSouth FloridaVMI
12.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceNorth TexasNotre DameRice
12.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameUAB
12.8%
0.2%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameRice
12.7%
0.8%
Air ForceArmyNorth TexasSouth Florida
12.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameSouth FloridaTemple
12.1%
0.1%
FL AtlanticMemphisNotre DameVMI
12.1%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasNotre DameSouth Florida
12.0%
1.0%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNotre DameSouth Florida
11.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticMemphisNotre Dame
11.8%
0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameSouth FloridaUAB
11.8%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameSouth FloridaTulsa
11.6%
0.1%
Air ForceNotre DameRiceSouth Florida
11.5%
0.1%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameTemple
11.1%
0.3%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameUAB
10.9%
0.7%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameTulsa
10.3%
0.2%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameTemple
10.0%
1.1%
Notre DameSouth FloridaUABVMI
10.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFL AtlanticMemphisNotre Dame
9.6%
0.5%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameRice
9.5%
0.2%
Notre DameRiceTempleVMI
9.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisNorth TexasNotre Dame
8.8%
0.6%
ArmyMemphisNorth TexasNotre Dame
8.7%
2.2%
MemphisNorth TexasNotre DameVMI
8.5%
0.2%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameTulsa
8.5%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre DameUABVMI
7.4%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre DameRiceVMI
7.3%
<0.1%
ArmyFL AtlanticNotre DameTulsa
7.1%
<0.1%
Notre DameRiceSouth FloridaVMI
6.9%
<0.1%
ArmyNotre DameSouth FloridaTemple
6.6%
0.4%
MemphisNotre DameTempleVMI
6.6%
<0.1%
MemphisNotre DameSouth FloridaVMI
5.9%
0.2%
Air ForceArmyMemphisNorth Texas
5.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNotre DameTemple
5.0%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisNotre DameSouth Florida
4.9%
2.8%
Air ForceFL AtlanticNotre DameRice
4.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceArmyMemphisSouth Florida
4.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceMemphisNotre DameSouth Florida
4.7%
0.8%
Notre DameSouth FloridaTempleUAB
1.5%
<0.1%
MemphisNorth TexasNotre DameTulsa
0.8%
0.1%

Data from 2025-08-22 • SportsSimulate.com