Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:50% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:27% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:60% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:49% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:38% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:53% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:22% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:52% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:59% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:58% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:75% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 3.2% | 87.4% |
| 6-2 | 12.0% | 24.7% |
| 5-3 | 24.1% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 28.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 20.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 8.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 6.2% (+0.0%) | 6.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 6.2% • Scenario: 57.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 6.2% • Scenario: 57.2%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
91.3%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%79.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
63.4%
2.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%95.3%
0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.1%
<0.1%84.3%
<0.1%84.1%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.3%
0.2%74.1%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%32.7%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.1%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.6%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.0%
<0.1%17.8%
0.1%17.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
40.2%
5.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.8%
0.2%87.2%
<0.1%85.5%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.7%
<0.1%84.1%
0.2%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.6%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%29.8%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.5%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.7%
<0.1%24.7%
<0.1%24.3%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%24.0%
0.1%23.7%
0.1%22.9%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.3%
0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
0.3%16.4%
0.1%15.1%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.5%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%13.4%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
28.5%
6.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%90.1%
<0.1%86.3%
0.2%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.2%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.3%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.7%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.2%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.5%
0.1%24.1%
0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.2%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.5%
0.1%20.4%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
0.1%19.5%
0.3%19.2%
0.2%19.1%
0.3%17.9%
0.1%17.1%
<0.1%17.1%
0.2%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%16.1%
0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.1%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%Data from 2025-08-22