Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
46.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:99% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:92% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:88% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:82% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:94% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:27% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:79% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:82% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:90% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:86% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:93% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 9.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 36.8% | 82.8% |
| 6-2 | 34.3% | 18.9% |
| 5-3 | 15.0% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 3.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
7.2%Any 1 loss
84.1%
29.5%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%96.2%
0.6%93.0%
1.5%92.9%
1.9%90.8%
1.5%84.9%
0.8%83.2%
0.5%82.2%
1.2%79.8%
19.1%Any 2 losses
35.8%
33.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%93.8%
0.1%93.3%
0.3%93.0%
0.2%92.4%
0.2%92.3%
0.2%91.8%
0.2%91.3%
0.1%89.3%
0.2%87.5%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%85.5%
<0.1%83.8%
<0.1%82.9%
0.1%81.8%
0.1%81.6%
1.2%81.0%
<0.1%80.5%
2.5%80.3%
2.1%79.8%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%76.9%
0.2%76.7%
<0.1%76.1%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%34.3%
<0.1%33.8%
0.1%32.6%
<0.1%31.5%
0.2%31.2%
0.1%30.1%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%29.1%
0.1%29.0%
0.4%28.9%
0.1%28.9%
0.2%28.7%
0.1%28.2%
0.3%27.9%
0.4%27.5%
0.1%26.9%
0.2%24.8%
0.3%24.6%
0.1%23.6%
0.4%22.9%
2.1%22.4%
0.3%21.9%
1.3%18.1%
4.0%18.1%
4.1%16.0%
1.7%15.1%
3.1%14.6%
4.9%Any 3 losses
21.5%
10.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.3%
0.3%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.2%
0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.4%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.5%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.4%
0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.8%
0.2%23.2%
0.3%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
0.3%22.7%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.3%
0.5%20.2%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
0.3%18.9%
0.5%18.9%
0.2%18.8%
<0.1%18.7%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.1%
0.6%16.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
0.3%16.2%
0.5%16.1%
<0.1%15.7%
0.1%15.7%
0.3%15.2%
<0.1%15.0%
0.7%14.5%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
0.4%13.6%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.2%
0.6%11.2%
0.3%10.0%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%1.0%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.4%Any 4 losses
18.2%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.3%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%Data from 2025-08-22