Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:68% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:48% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:74% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:49% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:62% | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:75% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:39% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:62% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:23% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:35% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.3% | 99.7% |
| 7-1 | 3.4% | 91.2% |
| 6-2 | 12.8% | 32.6% |
| 5-3 | 25.5% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 29.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 19.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 7.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 7.8% (+0.1%) | 7.6% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 7.8% • Scenario: 57.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 7.8% • Scenario: 57.2%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
91.5%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.2%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.6%
0.1%90.9%
<0.1%86.9%
0.3%86.0%
0.1%Any 2 losses
54.0%
4.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.2%
0.1%92.4%
0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.4%
0.3%91.3%
<0.1%91.1%
0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%88.1%
0.2%84.8%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%42.9%
0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.0%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%36.7%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%34.1%
<0.1%32.5%
0.2%31.0%
0.4%29.4%
<0.1%27.9%
0.1%27.2%
<0.1%26.5%
0.3%25.3%
0.1%25.3%
0.2%15.4%
0.5%Any 3 losses
37.1%
7.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.9%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.1%
<0.1%90.7%
0.1%88.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.4%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.1%
<0.1%84.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%58.5%
<0.1%57.8%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%54.5%
0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.8%
0.2%45.8%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.8%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.1%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.2%
<0.1%37.2%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%35.2%
<0.1%34.3%
<0.1%34.0%
<0.1%33.4%
0.3%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.1%
0.1%32.3%
0.1%32.3%
<0.1%31.9%
<0.1%31.8%
0.2%31.8%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.0%
0.1%30.5%
0.2%30.0%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%28.9%
0.2%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%27.9%
<0.1%27.0%
<0.1%26.8%
0.4%26.7%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%25.6%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.3%
0.2%15.9%
0.2%14.5%
0.5%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.3%
0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
25.9%
5.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.1%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.9%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%40.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.4%
0.1%33.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%30.9%
0.2%30.8%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.2%
0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.3%
<0.1%28.7%
0.1%27.8%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.7%
0.1%25.5%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.4%
0.2%13.4%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.3%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22