Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:52% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:83% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:61% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:83% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:78% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:68% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:54% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:78% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:83% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:40% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:37% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 16.8% | 95.0% |
| 6-2 | 29.6% | 42.1% |
| 5-3 | 27.9% | 1.3% |
| 4-4 | 15.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 32.6% (+0.0%) | 32.5% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 32.6% • Scenario: 57.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 32.6% • Scenario: 57.2%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.5%Any 1 loss
96.9%
4.0%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.1%
0.3%98.0%
0.1%97.4%
0.3%96.6%
0.1%95.8%
0.1%93.7%
0.1%93.3%
0.8%92.4%
0.4%Any 2 losses
76.9%
12.8%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
0.1%99.1%
0.4%99.1%
0.1%99.0%
0.2%98.4%
0.3%98.0%
0.1%97.9%
0.3%97.3%
0.3%97.1%
0.6%97.1%
<0.1%97.0%
0.3%95.7%
0.2%95.1%
<0.1%93.7%
0.2%93.5%
<0.1%93.0%
0.7%92.6%
1.4%91.5%
0.4%89.7%
0.8%88.0%
0.1%87.2%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.8%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%53.1%
0.2%51.6%
<0.1%47.7%
0.1%46.6%
0.1%46.0%
<0.1%42.7%
0.2%42.1%
0.2%41.5%
0.1%41.3%
0.2%40.0%
0.2%39.1%
0.2%38.9%
0.4%38.7%
0.3%37.3%
0.5%36.8%
0.1%35.4%
<0.1%22.7%
0.8%Any 3 losses
51.4%
21.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
0.2%98.7%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%98.3%
0.4%98.1%
0.2%97.9%
0.1%97.5%
0.5%97.4%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%97.1%
0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.8%
0.2%94.7%
<0.1%94.3%
0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.4%
0.3%93.3%
<0.1%93.1%
1.3%93.1%
0.7%92.7%
0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.4%
0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.6%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%70.9%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.7%
0.1%68.8%
<0.1%67.8%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%63.9%
0.1%63.9%
0.1%63.9%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.0%
<0.1%61.4%
0.1%61.3%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%59.0%
0.3%58.7%
<0.1%58.6%
0.2%56.8%
<0.1%56.6%
<0.1%56.1%
<0.1%55.9%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.7%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%51.9%
<0.1%51.7%
0.2%51.3%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%48.0%
0.1%47.5%
0.1%47.0%
0.2%46.7%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.0%
0.3%44.8%
<0.1%43.6%
0.2%43.6%
<0.1%43.3%
0.2%42.1%
<0.1%41.8%
<0.1%41.7%
0.2%41.7%
0.1%41.6%
0.9%41.5%
0.3%41.4%
0.7%41.2%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.5%
0.1%40.1%
0.3%40.0%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.3%
0.4%38.7%
0.3%38.3%
0.5%38.2%
0.4%38.1%
0.5%37.9%
0.4%37.7%
0.2%37.2%
0.2%37.1%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%34.6%
0.2%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%22.8%
0.1%21.8%
1.2%20.2%
0.6%11.3%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
0.3%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.7%
0.4%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
30.7%
19.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%97.6%
0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.1%
0.3%91.7%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.5%
0.2%90.4%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.6%
0.1%69.1%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%64.1%
0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.6%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%62.0%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.9%
0.1%58.7%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.9%
0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.2%
0.3%54.2%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%53.1%
0.4%52.6%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.6%
0.1%48.8%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%47.3%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.6%
0.1%45.1%
<0.1%44.3%
<0.1%44.2%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%43.1%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
0.3%41.6%
0.3%41.3%
0.4%40.9%
0.8%40.9%
0.1%40.7%
0.2%40.6%
0.4%40.2%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.9%
0.2%39.4%
<0.1%39.4%
0.3%39.1%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%38.6%
0.6%38.2%
0.2%37.5%
<0.1%36.3%
0.1%35.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.9%
0.1%32.8%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.9%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.7%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
1.0%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.9%
0.3%19.7%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.9%
0.2%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.7%
0.4%1.6%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
0.3%1.2%
0.3%1.1%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.8%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.5%0.7%
0.4%0.7%
0.7%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-08-22