Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
28.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/05 | Win prob:68% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:85% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:74% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:80% | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:37% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:81% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:61% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:77% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:60% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:41% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 11.3% | 98.8% |
| 6-2 | 25.5% | 54.9% |
| 5-3 | 29.9% | 2.6% |
| 4-4 | 20.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 8.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 28.0% (+0.0%) | 28.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 28.0% • Scenario: 42.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 28.0% • Scenario: 42.8%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.9%Any 1 loss
99.0%
5.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%99.7%
0.3%99.2%
1.2%98.4%
0.5%98.3%
0.5%98.2%
1.5%Any 2 losses
69.0%
15.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%99.4%
0.2%99.2%
0.3%99.2%
0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.9%
0.3%98.6%
<0.1%98.6%
0.2%98.5%
0.6%98.3%
0.3%98.3%
0.3%98.2%
0.3%98.1%
0.7%97.8%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%97.4%
0.1%97.1%
<0.1%77.4%
0.2%74.6%
<0.1%74.3%
0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.0%
0.2%72.0%
<0.1%70.9%
<0.1%70.0%
0.4%69.4%
0.1%65.3%
0.3%64.4%
0.5%64.0%
0.2%64.0%
<0.1%61.5%
0.4%60.9%
0.5%60.7%
0.1%60.6%
0.3%60.5%
0.8%58.3%
0.9%58.2%
0.1%58.1%
0.2%56.4%
0.4%54.7%
0.3%53.9%
0.4%46.1%
0.8%42.8%
2.1%39.9%
1.0%Any 3 losses
31.0%
24.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%98.7%
<0.1%98.5%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%97.6%
0.1%97.1%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.0%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%79.8%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.4%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.2%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.7%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.8%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%68.3%
0.2%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%65.1%
<0.1%64.6%
<0.1%64.6%
0.2%64.3%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%63.8%
<0.1%63.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%63.2%
0.1%62.4%
0.1%62.0%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.6%
<0.1%61.6%
0.2%61.5%
<0.1%61.3%
0.2%61.2%
0.2%60.7%
0.4%60.6%
<0.1%60.3%
0.1%60.3%
0.2%60.3%
<0.1%60.2%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
0.2%59.4%
0.2%59.4%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.2%
<0.1%57.7%
0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.0%
0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.2%
0.4%55.7%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.4%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%53.5%
0.2%52.2%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%51.3%
0.1%51.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.5%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.4%
0.5%42.8%
0.4%42.1%
1.0%41.7%
0.2%41.7%
<0.1%41.4%
0.2%40.9%
0.2%40.1%
0.4%39.9%
0.5%39.5%
0.1%39.3%
0.2%39.1%
<0.1%37.3%
0.2%30.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.3%
0.2%5.1%
0.1%5.0%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
0.3%4.0%
0.3%3.7%
0.2%3.7%
0.3%3.6%
0.3%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
0.3%3.5%
0.2%3.5%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.2%3.1%
0.5%3.1%
0.1%2.9%
0.5%2.9%
0.3%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.5%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
0.6%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.4%
0.8%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.2%
0.3%1.9%
0.2%1.8%
0.7%1.7%
0.3%1.7%
1.4%1.7%
0.1%1.6%
0.3%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
0.3%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
1.4%Any 4 losses
16.8%
14.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.3%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%64.0%
0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.8%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.4%
<0.1%48.2%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.5%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%44.9%
<0.1%44.8%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.6%
0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.3%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
0.2%38.6%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.5%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.2%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%4.0%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
0.3%3.0%
0.2%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.2%2.8%
0.6%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
0.3%2.3%
0.3%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
0.3%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
0.3%1.5%
0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.5%
0.4%1.4%
0.3%1.3%
0.1%1.2%
0.7%1.1%
0.3%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22