Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-08-22
Conference Standings
| T1 |  MiamiMIA | 0-0 | 0-0 | 45.1% | |
| T1 |  SMUSMU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 35.1% | |
| T1 |  ClemsonCLEM | 0-0 | 0-0 | 32.5% | |
| T1 |  LouisvilleLOU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 28.0% | |
| T1 |  Georgia TechGT | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9.8% | |
| T1 |  Virginia TechVT | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8.9% | |
| T1 |  VirginiaUVA | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8.8% | |
| T1 |  CaliforniaCAL | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7.7% | |
| T1 |  NC StateNCSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7.0% | |
| T1 |  DukeDUKE | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6.2% | |
| T1 |  Boston CollegeBC | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3.1% | |
| T1 |  Florida StateFSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2.6% | |
| T1 |  PittsburghPITT | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2.2% | |
| T1 |  SyracuseSYR | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.3% | |
| T1 |  North CarolinaUNC | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.1% | |
| T1 |  Wake ForestWAKE | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.4% | |
| T1 |  StanfordSTAN | 0-0 | 0-0 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 45.1%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 44.9% (-0.2%) | 45.3% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Hawai'iCCG: 45.3% • Scenario: 42.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Hawai'iCCG: 45.3% • Scenario: 42.8%
Data from 2025-08-22
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-0 | 8-1 | 7-1 | 7-2 | 6-2 | 6-3 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MiamiMIA | - | 99.9% | - | 94.7% | - | 37.9% | - | 0.7% | 45.1% |
| SMUSMU | - | 100% | - | 96.6% | - | 41.3% | - | 0.7% | 35.1% |
| ClemsonCLEM | - | 100% | - | 95.0% | - | 42.1% | - | 1.3% | 32.5% |
| LouisvilleLOU | - | 100% | - | 98.8% | - | 54.9% | - | 2.6% | 28.0% |
| Georgia TechGT | - | 100% | - | 88.1% | - | 27.8% | - | 0.3% | 9.8% |
| Virginia TechVT | - | 100% | - | 93.7% | - | 41.1% | - | 0.9% | 8.9% |
| VirginiaUVA | 99.4% | - | 99.6% | - | 73.4% | - | 5.3% | - | 8.8% |
| CaliforniaCAL | - | 99.7% | - | 91.2% | - | 32.6% | - | 0.4% | 7.7% |
| NC StateNCSU | 100% | - | 99.7% | - | 75.7% | - | 5.6% | - | 7.0% |
| DukeDUKE | - | 100% | - | 87.4% | - | 24.7% | - | 0.2% | 6.2% |
| Boston CollegeBC | - | 100% | - | 94.5% | - | 36.7% | - | 0.3% | 3.1% |
| Florida StateFSU | - | 100% | - | 90.8% | - | 29.8% | - | 0.2% | 2.6% |
| PittsburghPITT | - | 100% | - | 91.6% | - | 31.5% | - | 0.3% | 2.2% |
| SyracuseSYR | - | 100% | - | 97.7% | - | 42.1% | - | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| North CarolinaUNC | - | 100% | - | 86.0% | - | 20.5% | - | <0.1% | 1.1% |
| Wake ForestWAKE | - | 100% | - | 92.3% | - | 33.5% | - | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| StanfordSTAN | - | - | - | 50.0% | - | 31.8% | - | 0.5% | <0.1% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-0 | 8-1 | 7-1 | 7-2 | 6-2 | 6-3 | 5-3 | 5-4 | 4-4 | 4-5 | 3-5 | 3-6 | 2-6 | 2-7 | 1-7 | 1-8 | 0-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MiamiMIA(0-0) | - | 7.9% | 0.0% | 25.7% | 0.0% | 33.5% | 0.0% | 22.3% | 0.0% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | 6.0 |
| SMUSMU(0-0) | - | 4.4% | 0.0% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 30.8% | 0.0% | 27.5% | 0.0% | 14.1% | 0.0% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | 5.6 |
| ClemsonCLEM(0-0) | - | 3.8% | 0.0% | 16.8% | 0.0% | 29.6% | 0.0% | 27.9% | 0.0% | 15.6% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | - | 5.4 |
| LouisvilleLOU(0-0) | - | 2.1% | 0.0% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 25.5% | 0.0% | 29.9% | 0.0% | 20.5% | 0.0% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | <0.1% | - | 5.1 |
| VirginiaUVA(0-0) | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 19.2% | 0.0% | 27.6% | 0.0% | 24.8% | 0.0% | 13.3% | 0.0% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| NC StateNCSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 16.3% | 0.0% | 25.5% | 0.0% | 25.8% | 0.0% | 16.4% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 4.5 |
| Georgia TechGT(0-0) | - | 0.8% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 26.9% | 0.0% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | - | 4.4 |
| CaliforniaCAL(0-0) | - | 0.3% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 25.5% | 0.0% | 29.4% | 0.0% | 19.4% | 0.0% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | - | 4.2 |
| Virginia TechVT(0-0) | - | 0.4% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 12.4% | 0.0% | 24.0% | 0.0% | 28.2% | 0.0% | 20.6% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | - | 4.2 |
| DukeDUKE(0-0) | - | 0.4% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% | 24.1% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | - | 4.1 |
| Florida StateFSU(0-0) | - | <0.1% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 0.0% | 16.4% | 0.0% | 28.2% | 0.0% | 27.9% | 0.0% | 15.7% | 0.0% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 0.6% | - | 3.5 |
| Boston CollegeBC(0-0) | - | <0.1% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 5.5% | 0.0% | 15.6% | 0.0% | 27.0% | 0.0% | 28.0% | 0.0% | 16.8% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 0.0% | 0.7% | - | 3.5 |
| PittsburghPITT(0-0) | - | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 14.0% | 0.0% | 25.7% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 18.9% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 0.0% | 1.1% | - | 3.3 |
| North CarolinaUNC(0-0) | - | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 23.6% | 0.0% | 29.7% | 0.0% | 21.7% | 0.0% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 1.2% | - | 3.2 |
| SyracuseSYR(0-0) | - | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 9.9% | 0.0% | 23.4% | 0.0% | 31.1% | 0.0% | 23.1% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 0.0% | 1.3% | - | 3.1 |
| Wake ForestWAKE(0-0) | - | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 15.1% | 0.0% | 27.5% | 0.0% | 29.5% | 0.0% | 17.3% | 0.0% | 4.3% | - | 2.5 |
| StanfordSTAN(0-0) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 15.3% | 0.0% | 30.9% | 0.0% | 33.4% | 0.0% | 15.1% | - | 1.6 |
Data from 2025-08-22