Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
35.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:76% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:87% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:43% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:85% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:94% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:46% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:82% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:54% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:71% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 4.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 18.4% | 96.6% |
| 6-2 | 30.8% | 41.3% |
| 5-3 | 27.5% | 0.7% |
| 4-4 | 14.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 4.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 35.2% (+0.1%) | 34.9% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
StanfordCCG: 35.2% • Scenario: 57.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
StanfordCCG: 35.2% • Scenario: 57.2%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.1%Any 1 loss
97.7%
6.8%
100.0%
1.5%
100.0%
0.4%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
99.3%
0.4%
98.4%
0.3%
98.4%
0.6%
98.1%
0.8%
96.5%
0.2%
96.0%
1.4%
93.4%
1.0%Any 2 losses
72.4%
17.9%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%99.1%
0.3%98.9%
0.6%98.9%
<0.1%98.8%
0.2%98.8%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%98.6%
0.1%98.5%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.8%
0.9%97.8%
1.1%97.1%
0.2%96.9%
0.2%96.8%
0.3%96.0%
1.8%95.5%
0.2%95.5%
0.4%95.5%
<0.1%94.3%
1.3%91.7%
<0.1%91.4%
0.1%90.9%
0.3%90.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%71.1%
<0.1%68.9%
0.1%65.3%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%62.9%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%58.2%
0.3%56.7%
0.1%56.3%
0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%52.4%
0.2%50.6%
0.3%47.6%
0.2%47.1%
0.3%46.3%
0.6%45.5%
0.4%45.2%
0.2%44.7%
0.2%43.7%
0.7%43.5%
0.1%43.4%
0.4%41.2%
0.5%29.7%
0.9%29.0%
0.7%25.0%
1.1%Any 3 losses
45.8%
22.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%98.8%
<0.1%98.5%
0.3%98.4%
0.1%98.2%
0.1%98.2%
0.1%98.2%
0.2%97.1%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.4%
0.3%96.1%
0.2%96.0%
0.1%95.5%
0.6%95.4%
0.3%95.3%
0.1%94.8%
0.2%94.7%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%94.3%
0.4%93.8%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%70.1%
0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
0.2%68.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.4%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.2%
<0.1%63.4%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.2%
0.2%62.1%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.7%
0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.4%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
0.3%52.4%
<0.1%52.2%
0.4%52.2%
<0.1%52.0%
0.2%52.0%
<0.1%51.9%
<0.1%50.8%
0.2%50.7%
0.7%50.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.3%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%47.3%
0.2%47.1%
<0.1%46.6%
0.4%46.6%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%46.3%
0.5%46.2%
<0.1%46.1%
0.3%46.0%
0.1%45.9%
0.2%45.6%
<0.1%45.4%
0.5%45.3%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%44.6%
0.9%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
0.3%44.4%
0.2%43.9%
0.1%43.2%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.5%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.5%
0.3%40.4%
0.7%40.3%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%34.9%
0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%29.9%
0.1%28.5%
0.3%27.4%
1.2%27.1%
<0.1%27.0%
0.9%25.5%
0.3%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
0.1%23.8%
0.2%23.6%
0.2%23.3%
1.5%21.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.3%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.1%
0.3%1.0%
0.4%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.7%
0.6%Any 4 losses
27.7%
12.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.8%
0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.1%
0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.3%
0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.7%
0.2%50.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.2%48.5%
<0.1%48.3%
0.1%48.3%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%47.5%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.4%
<0.1%46.2%
0.2%46.2%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%45.9%
0.2%44.4%
<0.1%44.3%
0.2%43.9%
<0.1%43.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%42.0%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
0.1%41.4%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.9%
0.3%40.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.7%
0.1%39.5%
0.1%39.4%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
0.1%31.4%
0.4%30.6%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.3%
<0.1%27.6%
0.3%26.7%
0.2%26.3%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.3%
0.5%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%22.1%
0.2%21.7%
0.1%21.4%
<0.1%19.0%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.7%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.3%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.8%0.6%
0.5%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.7%Data from 2025-08-22