Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | Win prob:83% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:52% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:71% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:9% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:90% | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:71% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:34% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:83% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:16% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 97.5% |
| 8-1 | 1.8% | 46.5% |
| 7-2 | 11.1% | 2.3% |
| 6-3 | 27.6% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 31.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 19.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 6.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
49.2%
0.7%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
96.8%
<0.1%
80.0%
<0.1%
76.9%
<0.1%
75.0%
<0.1%
72.2%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%
56.6%
<0.1%
55.6%
<0.1%
51.0%
0.2%
39.7%
0.4%Any 2 losses
9.7%
5.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.4%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.6%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%41.6%
0.4%38.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%5.6%
0.2%5.4%
<0.1%5.0%
0.1%4.9%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
0.4%2.2%
<0.1%1.4%
0.7%0.7%
2.0%Any 3 losses
4.6%
5.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%2.9%
0.3%2.8%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.5%
0.6%2.0%
0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.2%
1.9%1.1%
0.4%Any 4 losses
3.6%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.6%
0.3%Data from 2025-08-22