Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:83% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:42% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:26% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:52% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:41% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:41% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:53% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:68% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:2% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:31% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:22% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.8% | 91.6% |
| 6-2 | 4.4% | 31.5% |
| 5-3 | 14.0% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 25.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 28.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 18.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 6.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2.1% (-0.0%) | 2.2% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 2.2% • Scenario: 42.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 2.2% • Scenario: 42.8%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
87.9%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%78.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
45.4%
1.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%95.9%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.6%
<0.1%37.8%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.2%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.8%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%27.0%
0.1%22.9%
<0.1%20.9%
0.1%18.4%
<0.1%12.4%
0.1%Any 4 losses
22.4%
3.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.3%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
0.1%38.9%
<0.1%37.7%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.7%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.1%
0.2%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.4%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.1%
0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.5%
0.1%26.0%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%13.5%
0.2%10.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.0%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22