Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:66% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:10% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:86% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:17% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:3% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:15% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:20% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:29% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:34% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:44% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:19% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-1 | 0% | 0% |
| 6-2 | 0.1% | 41.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.9% | 1.3% |
| 4-4 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 16.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 32.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 31.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 13.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 2 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%
25.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
18.8%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
9.6%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-08-22