Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:13% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:61% | |
| 3 | 9/12 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:17% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:51% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:15% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:59% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:31% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:66% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:14% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:1% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:53% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.3% | 97.7% |
| 6-2 | 2.2% | 42.1% |
| 5-3 | 9.9% | 1.2% |
| 4-4 | 23.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 31.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 23.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 8.7% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1.3% (-0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 1.3% • Scenario: 42.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 1.3% • Scenario: 42.8%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
88.6%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
67.2%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
36.7%
1.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%56.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.8%
0.2%37.5%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
0.1%30.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.0%
0.2%22.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22