Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | Win prob:38% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:12% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:31% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:90% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:18% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:55% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:24% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:56% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:21% | |
| 10 | 11/04 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/11 | Win prob:84% | |
| 12 | 11/18 | Win prob:17% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.5% | 87.9% |
| 6-2 | 4.1% | 25.4% |
| 5-3 | 15.2% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 29.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 30.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 15.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
69.1%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
87.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
43.6%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
30.4%
1.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%84.1%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.5%
<0.1%30.0%
0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.2%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.8%
0.1%22.3%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.2%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%Data from 2025-08-22