Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:65% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:72% | |
| 3 | 9/12 | Win prob:74% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:84% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:53% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:29% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:57% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:40% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:78% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:62% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:45% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:35% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 2.1% | 99.3% |
| 7-2 | 8.4% | 72.2% |
| 6-3 | 18.9% | 9.7% |
| 5-4 | 27.0% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 24.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 13.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 10.0% (-0.2%) | 10.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.4% (+0.3%) | 9.9% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 10.5% • Scenario: 31.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 10.4% • Scenario: 43.8%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.6%
0.9%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.1%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
78.5%
4.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.4%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
0.1%80.4%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%76.8%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%75.6%
0.1%75.3%
<0.1%74.8%
0.1%74.2%
<0.1%74.0%
0.1%73.6%
0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.0%
0.2%72.3%
0.4%72.1%
0.1%71.7%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.1%
<0.1%70.3%
<0.1%67.5%
0.2%66.8%
0.3%65.6%
0.1%61.4%
0.4%Any 3 losses
31.8%
11.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%89.4%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.8%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.6%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.5%
<0.1%80.0%
0.1%79.4%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.7%
<0.1%74.3%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.6%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%71.8%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.9%
0.1%68.8%
0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%67.1%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
<0.1%65.9%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.4%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.3%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.7%
<0.1%57.4%
0.2%57.1%
<0.1%56.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.0%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.5%
0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.9%
0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.0%
0.1%10.4%
0.2%10.3%
0.1%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.3%
0.2%9.0%
0.1%8.9%
0.1%8.8%
0.3%8.4%
<0.1%8.4%
0.2%8.3%
0.2%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.8%
0.3%7.6%
<0.1%7.4%
0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.2%
0.3%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.1%6.9%
0.3%6.9%
0.1%6.3%
0.4%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.2%5.7%
0.2%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
0.5%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.1%
0.2%4.6%
0.1%Any 4 losses
18.8%
9.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%67.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.1%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.6%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
0.1%11.2%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
0.1%9.3%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
0.1%8.1%
0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
0.3%8.0%
0.1%7.9%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.4%
0.3%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%7.0%
<0.1%7.0%
0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.0%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%Data from 2025-08-22