Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:73% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:76% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:66% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:65% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:48% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:40% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:60% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:77% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:51% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:53% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:42% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 3.4% | 99.4% |
| 7-2 | 11.5% | 74.6% |
| 6-3 | 22.2% | 15.1% |
| 5-4 | 26.6% | 0.1% |
| 4-5 | 21.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 10.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 3.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 15.6% (-0.1%) | 15.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.3% (-0.4%) | 16.0% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 16.0% • Scenario: 41.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 16.0% • Scenario: 56.2%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
99.4%
1.8%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.5%
0.2%98.7%
0.3%98.7%
0.2%98.6%
0.1%Any 2 losses
79.6%
7.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%91.9%
<0.1%89.0%
0.1%88.4%
<0.1%87.3%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
0.1%82.5%
<0.1%82.4%
0.3%82.2%
<0.1%81.4%
0.2%81.2%
0.1%80.8%
0.2%80.6%
0.1%79.7%
0.2%79.7%
<0.1%79.6%
0.3%78.3%
0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.8%
<0.1%74.7%
<0.1%74.3%
0.2%72.4%
0.4%71.9%
0.2%71.6%
0.1%70.8%
0.3%70.2%
0.3%69.1%
0.2%69.0%
0.2%68.2%
0.3%67.4%
0.3%67.0%
0.2%67.0%
0.1%66.1%
0.1%61.7%
0.2%Any 3 losses
33.8%
16.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.1%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.1%
<0.1%83.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.5%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.8%
0.1%79.8%
<0.1%79.6%
<0.1%79.4%
0.1%79.4%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%78.2%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.1%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.5%
<0.1%74.1%
0.2%74.1%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.0%
<0.1%72.9%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.5%
0.1%72.1%
0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.1%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.8%
0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.9%
<0.1%65.9%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%65.6%
0.1%65.6%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%63.4%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
0.1%62.1%
<0.1%61.5%
0.1%61.4%
0.1%60.8%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.9%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.5%
<0.1%25.4%
<0.1%24.0%
0.1%23.5%
0.2%23.3%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.1%
0.2%20.7%
0.2%20.4%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.0%
0.2%18.5%
0.1%18.4%
0.1%18.3%
<0.1%18.1%
<0.1%18.1%
<0.1%18.0%
0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.7%
0.1%17.6%
0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.4%
0.2%17.2%
0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
0.2%16.5%
<0.1%16.3%
0.3%16.0%
0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.9%
0.2%15.8%
0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
0.4%15.5%
0.1%15.4%
0.1%15.1%
0.1%14.8%
0.3%14.8%
0.1%14.8%
0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.5%
0.5%14.2%
0.4%13.9%
0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.4%
0.4%13.2%
<0.1%13.0%
0.1%13.0%
0.3%12.8%
0.1%12.6%
0.2%12.4%
0.2%12.4%
0.2%12.3%
0.1%12.0%
0.2%11.9%
0.3%11.8%
0.1%11.8%
0.2%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
0.3%11.3%
0.2%10.9%
0.2%10.6%
0.3%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
0.1%9.1%
0.1%7.9%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.2%
0.1%Any 4 losses
20.5%
10.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.2%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.8%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.5%
<0.1%21.5%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.7%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.3%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.4%
0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.3%
0.1%17.2%
0.1%17.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.1%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.5%
0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.3%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
0.1%8.2%
0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22