Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
77.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:97% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:76% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:88% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:97% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:90% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:73% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:96% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 29.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 40.4% | 97.7% |
| 6-2 | 22.3% | 35.4% |
| 5-3 | 6.3% | 0.6% |
| 4-4 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
24.2%Any 1 loss
98.0%
38.2%100.0%
2.7%100.0%
1.5%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.2%99.6%
2.7%98.7%
7.7%98.6%
3.1%97.9%
5.9%97.8%
0.8%96.7%
9.2%95.6%
0.9%95.4%
2.8%Any 2 losses
53.5%
25.5%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.3%99.4%
0.2%98.9%
0.4%98.8%
0.9%98.4%
0.7%98.1%
0.1%98.0%
0.2%97.9%
0.3%97.7%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.6%
0.3%97.5%
0.5%97.2%
0.4%97.0%
0.1%97.0%
0.3%96.9%
<0.1%96.7%
0.3%96.7%
1.0%96.0%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.4%
0.2%95.4%
0.1%95.3%
<0.1%67.6%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.2%
0.1%59.0%
0.3%54.1%
0.1%50.3%
0.3%50.0%
0.8%48.1%
0.1%47.5%
<0.1%46.3%
0.6%46.3%
0.2%46.0%
0.4%45.0%
1.0%43.1%
0.3%40.2%
0.3%39.7%
0.2%39.4%
<0.1%39.0%
0.4%37.8%
0.9%36.6%
0.2%34.9%
0.9%34.9%
0.7%34.3%
1.1%34.2%
0.7%32.0%
1.7%29.9%
2.9%29.6%
1.3%21.4%
2.2%Any 3 losses
28.3%
6.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.9%
<0.1%55.8%
0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.0%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.1%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%40.7%
0.1%40.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%38.2%
<0.1%38.2%
<0.1%38.2%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.4%
0.1%35.4%
0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.4%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%31.6%
0.3%30.9%
0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.4%
0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%28.7%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%26.4%
0.2%26.3%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.7%
0.1%25.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.1%
<0.1%21.1%
0.3%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%1.6%
0.2%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.3%0.8%
0.1%0.6%
0.3%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
0.4%Any 4 losses
23.9%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%Data from 2025-08-22