Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-26

Atlantic Coast ConferenceConference Standings

1Georgia TechGT5-08-065.8%
T2VirginiaUVA4-17-132.2%
T2PittsburghPITT4-16-213.6%
T4LouisvilleLOU3-16-129.7%
T4SMUSMU3-15-316.4%
T4DukeDUKE3-14-312.3%
7Miami FLMIA2-16-129.6%
T8Wake ForestWAKE2-25-20.2%
T8CaliforniaCAL2-25-3<0.1%
T8Virginia TechVT2-23-5<0.1%
T11ClemsonCLEM2-33-4-
T11NC StateNCSU2-34-4-
T11StanfordSTAN2-33-5-
14SyracuseSYR1-43-5-
T15Boston CollegeBC0-51-7-
T15Florida StFSU0-43-4-
T15North CarolinaUNC0-32-5-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Matchups

115.8%
Georgia TechGT
vs
UVAVirginia
214.5%
Georgia TechGT
vs
MIAMiami FL
313.2%
Georgia TechGT
vs
LOULouisville
410.5%
Georgia TechGT
vs
SMUSMU
57.2%
DukeDUKE
vs
GTGeorgia Tech
66.0%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
MIAMiami FL
75.4%
Miami FLMIA
vs
UVAVirginia
85.2%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
UVAVirginia
94.3%
Georgia TechGT
vs
PITTPittsburgh
103.4%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
PITTPittsburgh
113.0%
PittsburghPITT
vs
UVAVirginia
122.3%
SMUSMU
vs
UVAVirginia
132.0%
DukeDUKE
vs
MIAMiami FL
141.2%
PittsburghPITT
vs
SMUSMU
151.1%
DukeDUKE
vs
LOULouisville

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 65.8%
Game
Georgia TechCCG OddsAway
Georgia TechCCG OddsHome
Miami FLMIA@SMUSMU
62.2%
(-3.6%)		70.4%
(+4.6%)
Notre DameND@Boston CollegeBC
65.8%
(+0.0%)		64.0%
(-1.8%)
North CarolinaUNC@SyracuseSYR
65.7%
(-0.1%)		65.8%
(+0.0%)
Georgia TechGT@NC StateNCSU
82.6%
(+16.8%)		40.8%
(-24.9%)
DukeDUKE@ClemsonCLEM
62.9%
(-2.9%)		67.0%
(+1.3%)
LouisvilleLOU@Virginia TechVT
64.5%
(-1.3%)		71.8%
(+6.0%)
Wake ForestWAKE@Florida StFSU
65.8%
(+0.1%)		65.7%
(-0.0%)
PittsburghPITT@StanfordSTAN
65.3%
(-0.5%)		69.0%
(+3.3%)
VirginiaUVA@CaliforniaCAL
64.0%
(-1.8%)		69.4%
(+3.6%)

Best Winner Combination for Georgia Tech

Boston CollegeBoston CollegeGeorgia TechGeorgia TechVirginia TechVirginia TechStanfordStanford

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Georgia Tech

Georgia TechGeorgia Tech

CCG: 82.6% • Scenario: 59.7%

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-08-17-17-26-26-35-3Overall
Georgia TechGT100%-82.2%-7.2%--65.8%
VirginiaUVA-100%-42.4%-<0.1%-32.2%
LouisvilleLOU--93.6%-22.9%-<0.1%29.7%
Miami FLMIA--86.7%-9.8%--29.6%
SMUSMU--78.8%-4.6%--16.4%
PittsburghPITT--90.1%-4.3%--13.6%
DukeDUKE--80.3%-7.7%--12.3%
Wake ForestWAKE----14.5%-<0.1%0.2%
CaliforniaCAL----18.7%--<0.1%
Virginia TechVT----40.2%-<0.1%<0.1%
Boston CollegeBC--------
ClemsonCLEM--------
Florida StFSU--------
NC StateNCSU-----0.2%--
North CarolinaUNC--------
StanfordSTAN--------
SyracuseSYR--------

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-08-17-17-26-26-35-35-44-44-53-53-62-62-71-70-8Avg Wins
Georgia TechGT(5-0)25.8%0.0%46.4%0.0%24.4%0.0%3.3%---------6.9
VirginiaUVA(4-1)-14.9%0.0%40.8%0.0%32.7%0.0%10.5%0.0%1.1%------6.6
Miami FLMIA(2-1)--29.1%0.0%44.8%0.0%21.8%0.0%4.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%<0.1%---6.0
LouisvilleLOU(3-1)--20.7%0.0%45.3%0.0%28.0%0.0%5.7%0.0%0.4%-----5.8
SMUSMU(3-1)--18.3%0.0%43.5%0.0%31.1%0.0%6.6%0.0%0.4%-----5.7
PittsburghPITT(4-1)--13.0%0.0%44.3%0.0%37.8%0.0%4.9%-------5.7
DukeDUKE(3-1)--11.5%0.0%39.8%0.0%35.7%0.0%11.8%0.0%1.3%-----5.5
ClemsonCLEM(2-3)------20.2%0.0%48.5%0.0%27.0%0.0%4.3%---3.8
NC StateNCSU(2-3)-----1.4%0.0%17.8%0.0%42.1%0.0%32.1%0.0%6.6%--3.8
Wake ForestWAKE(2-2)----1.3%0.0%11.9%0.0%36.1%0.0%40.3%0.0%10.3%---3.5
CaliforniaCAL(2-2)----0.4%0.0%5.6%0.0%28.0%0.0%46.6%0.0%19.5%---3.2
StanfordSTAN(2-3)------1.7%0.0%17.0%0.0%45.5%0.0%35.8%---2.8
Virginia TechVT(2-2)----0.1%0.0%2.1%0.0%14.3%0.0%41.1%0.0%42.3%---2.8
SyracuseSYR(1-4)--------2.8%0.0%47.4%0.0%40.7%0.0%9.1%-2.4
Florida StFSU(0-4)--------5.6%0.0%29.5%0.0%41.4%0.0%20.2%3.3%2.1
North CarolinaUNC(0-3)------0.3%0.0%3.9%0.0%17.3%0.0%35.8%0.0%33.4%9.3%1.7
Boston CollegeBC(0-5)----------0.5%0.0%7.8%0.0%38.0%53.7%0.6

Data from 2025-10-26 • SportsSimulate.com