Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
13.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W61-9 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L24-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L27-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W48-7 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W30-13 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W53-34 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:86% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:6% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:47% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:32% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 13.0% | 90.1% |
| 6-2 | 44.3% | 4.3% |
| 5-3 | 37.8% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 4.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 14.9% (+1.3%) | 12.0% (-1.7%) | |
| 13.6% (-0.0%) | 14.8% (+1.2%) | |
| 13.4% (-0.3%) | 13.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 12.4% (-1.2%) | 15.5% (+1.8%) | |
| 12.8% (-0.8%) | 14.0% (+0.4%) | |
| 13.2% (-0.4%) | 15.6% (+2.0%) | |
| 12.8% (-0.8%) | 14.0% (+0.4%) | |
| 15.5% (+1.8%) | 1.9% (-11.7%) | |
| 12.8% (-0.8%) | 15.4% (+1.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
SMU
Boston College
NC State
Virginia Tech
Stanford
CaliforniaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MiamiPittsburghCCG: 16.9% • Scenario: 48.6%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
89.4%
0.7%Any 1 loss
76.2%
14.7%
90.2%
12.3%18.9%
0.1%3.7%
1.5%
2.9%
0.8%Any 2 losses
4.3%
41.9%12.7%
1.9%4.2%
26.3%3.4%
13.7%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26