Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W48-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L31-35 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W55-16 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W48-20 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | W46-38 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W30-27 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W22-20 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W17-16 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:68% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:74% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:38% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:79% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 14.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 40.8% | 42.4% |
| 6-3 | 32.7% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 10.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 1.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 31.9% (-0.3%) | 32.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 32.2% (+0.0%) | 32.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 32.3% (+0.1%) | 32.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 27.6% (-4.6%) | 39.1% (+6.8%) | |
| 28.0% (-4.2%) | 34.1% (+1.9%) | |
| 31.3% (-0.9%) | 36.5% (+4.3%) | |
| 32.4% (+0.2%) | 32.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 31.7% (-0.5%) | 35.3% (+3.1%) | |
| 42.7% (+10.5%) | 10.5% (-21.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
SMU
Boston College
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
StanfordCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
VirginiaCCG: 42.7% • Scenario: 67.5%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
14.9%Any 1 loss
42.4%
40.8%
47.3%
7.2%47.1%
5.2%46.7%
4.0%
39.2%
24.4%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26