Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
29.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W51-17 | |
| 2 | 9/05 | W28-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W40-17 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W34-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L27-30 | |
| 8 | 10/17 | W24-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W38-24 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:83% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:91% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:63% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:44% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 20.7% | 93.6% |
| 6-2 | 45.3% | 22.9% |
| 5-3 | 28.0% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 5.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 28.9% (-0.8%) | 30.8% (+1.1%) | |
| 29.7% (+0.0%) | 29.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 30.0% (+0.3%) | 29.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 25.9% (-3.8%) | 35.4% (+5.7%) | |
| 24.6% (-5.1%) | 32.0% (+2.3%) | |
| 34.3% (+4.5%) | 7.9% (-21.8%) | |
| 29.5% (-0.2%) | 29.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 29.7% (-0.1%) | 30.1% (+0.4%) | |
| 26.6% (-3.1%) | 36.2% (+6.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Boston College
North Carolina
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
StanfordCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ClemsonLouisvilleCCG: 36.7% • Scenario: 57.5%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
93.6%
17.0%Any 1 loss
29.1%
40.9%
93.3%
3.6%31.3%
3.6%
30.9%
1.8%28.3%
10.1%
18.2%
21.8%Any 2 losses
23.5%
8.0%31.0%
2.1%30.8%
0.8%28.0%
0.4%18.4%
4.7%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26