Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
16.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L45-48 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-35 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-18 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W35-24 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L12-13 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:44% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:83% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 18.3% | 78.8% |
| 6-2 | 43.5% | 4.6% |
| 5-3 | 31.1% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 6.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.4% (-15.0%) | 35.7% (+19.3%) | |
| 16.4% (-0.0%) | 17.1% (+0.7%) | |
| 16.2% (-0.3%) | 16.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 14.9% (-1.5%) | 18.7% (+2.3%) | |
| 11.3% (-5.1%) | 18.6% (+2.2%) | |
| 16.3% (-0.1%) | 17.0% (+0.6%) | |
| 17.0% (+0.5%) | 16.2% (-0.3%) | |
| 16.1% (-0.3%) | 18.5% (+2.1%) | |
| 14.5% (-1.9%) | 20.3% (+3.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
SMU
Boston College
Duke
Virginia Tech
StanfordCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
SMUCCG: 35.7% • Scenario: 43.8%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
78.8%
18.3%Any 1 loss
4.6%
43.5%12.9%
2.0%
12.9%
3.8%
3.4%
23.4%
3.1%
14.4%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26