Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W45-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L19-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L27-34 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-33 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W38-3 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W45-21 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L18-27 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:31% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:52% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:62% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:79% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 11.5% | 80.3% |
| 6-2 | 39.8% | 7.7% |
| 5-3 | 35.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 11.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 11.5% (-0.9%) | 13.4% (+1.1%) | |
| 12.3% (-0.0%) | 13.6% (+1.3%) | |
| 13.1% (+0.8%) | 11.9% (-0.4%) | |
| 11.1% (-1.2%) | 14.1% (+1.8%) | |
| 33.3% (+20.9%) | 3.1% (-9.2%) | |
| 11.7% (-0.6%) | 15.3% (+2.9%) | |
| 13.4% (+1.1%) | 11.8% (-0.5%) | |
| 12.1% (-0.2%) | 13.7% (+1.4%) | |
| 11.4% (-1.0%) | 14.3% (+2.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
SMU
Boston CollegeDuke
Virginia Tech
StanfordCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
DukeCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 30.6%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
79.7%
6.1%Any 1 loss
23.1%
26.0%
81.1%
5.4%
10.2%
1.7%
9.9%
1.7%
8.4%
13.6%
3.3%
3.6%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26