Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-26
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 3-0 | 4-3 | 89.5% | |
| T1 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 3-0 | 5-2 | 27.4% | |
| 3 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 4-1 | 6-2 | 41.8% | |
| T4 |  LibertyLIB | 2-1 | 3-4 | 20.0% | |
| T4 |  Missouri StateMOST | 2-1 | 4-3 | 8.5% | |
| T6 |  DelawareDEL | 2-2 | 4-3 | 8.7% | |
| T6 |  Louisiana TechLT | 2-2 | 4-3 | 2.6% | |
| T8 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 1-2 | 3-4 | 1.2% | |
| T8 |  UTEPUTEP | 1-2 | 2-5 | 0.2% | |
| 10 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 1-3 | 3-4 | 0.1% | |
| T11 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-3 | 1-6 | <0.1% | |
| T11 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-4 | 0-7 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 89.5%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 90.1% (+0.6%) | 89.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 90.1% (+0.6%) | 89.2% (-0.3%) | |
| 91.9% (+2.4%) | 75.9% (-13.6%) | |
| 90.3% (+0.7%) | 88.8% (-0.7%) | |
| 90.8% (+1.2%) | 89.0% (-0.5%) | |
| 90.7% (+1.1%) | 89.1% (-0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Louisiana TechFlorida InternationalJacksonville StateDelawareUTEPWestern KentuckyCCG: 94.8% • Scenario: 2.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Jacksonville StateCCG: 91.9% • Scenario: 85.3%
Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 99.1% | 73.3% | 4.6% | - | 89.5% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | - | 98.9% | 55.1% | 3.6% | - | 41.8% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 97.7% | 46.3% | 2.3% | <0.1% | 27.4% |
| LibertyLIB | - | 96.9% | 45.7% | 2.4% | - | 20.0% |
| DelawareDEL | - | - | 32.1% | 1.8% | - | 8.7% |
| Missouri StateMOST | - | 97.6% | 32.2% | 1.6% | - | 8.5% |
| Louisiana TechLT | - | - | 30.9% | 1.7% | - | 2.6% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | - | 64.5% | 2.3% | - | 1.2% |
| UTEPUTEP | - | - | 62.4% | 3.5% | - | 0.2% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | - | - | 3.6% | - | 0.1% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | - | - | 2.0% | - | <0.1% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-10-26
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(3-0) | 34.3% | 41.3% | 19.3% | 4.6% | 0.5% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 7.0 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(4-1) | - | 11.6% | 53.1% | 30.7% | 4.6% | - | - | - | - | 5.7 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(3-0) | 1.3% | 11.1% | 31.3% | 35.7% | 17.6% | 3.0% | - | - | - | 5.3 |
| LibertyLIB(2-1) | - | 7.5% | 25.9% | 35.5% | 23.0% | 7.1% | 0.9% | - | - | 5.0 |
| DelawareDEL(2-2) | - | - | 24.8% | 45.0% | 24.8% | 5.1% | 0.3% | - | - | 4.9 |
| Missouri StateMOST(2-1) | - | 2.8% | 16.1% | 33.3% | 31.9% | 13.7% | 2.2% | - | - | 4.6 |
| Louisiana TechLT(2-2) | - | - | 6.7% | 29.4% | 40.6% | 20.7% | 2.6% | - | - | 4.2 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(1-2) | - | - | 1.4% | 10.4% | 28.7% | 35.9% | 19.8% | 3.7% | - | 3.3 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(1-3) | - | - | - | 3.1% | 18.9% | 38.0% | 31.5% | 8.5% | - | 2.8 |
| UTEPUTEP(1-2) | - | - | 0.1% | 2.3% | 12.8% | 33.1% | 37.6% | 14.1% | - | 2.5 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-3) | - | - | - | 0.3% | 4.0% | 18.6% | 36.6% | 31.6% | 8.9% | 1.8 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.2% | 3.5% | 19.7% | 43.4% | 33.1% | 0.9 |
Data from 2025-10-26