Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
27.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L9-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L9-56 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-13 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W28-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-16 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | W35-7 | |
| 8 | 10/21 | W45-26 | |
| 9 | 10/28 | Win prob:71% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:57% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:18% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:58% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:30% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 11.1% | 97.7% |
| 6-2 | 31.3% | 46.3% |
| 5-3 | 35.7% | 2.3% |
| 4-4 | 17.6% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 3.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 27.4% (-0.1%) | 27.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 28.3% (+0.9%) | 26.9% (-0.5%) | |
| 27.1% (-0.3%) | 29.3% (+1.8%) | |
| 28.1% (+0.7%) | 26.8% (-0.7%) | |
| 11.6% (-15.8%) | 34.0% (+6.5%) | |
| 33.5% (+6.1%) | 25.2% (-2.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Sam Houston
Florida International
Middle Tennessee
DelawareKennesaw State
New Mexico StateCCG: 56.9% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateCCG: 34.0% • Scenario: 70.8%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.3%Any 1 loss
97.7%
11.1%
100.0%
0.5%100.0%
1.0%
99.4%
0.9%
97.7%
2.9%
96.9%
5.8%Any 2 losses
46.2%
31.3%72.7%
0.4%62.5%
0.7%57.0%
0.4%56.6%
4.5%56.6%
1.3%56.0%
2.3%55.8%
2.3%45.7%
2.0%42.8%
4.1%37.7%
13.3%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26