Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L16-28 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W42-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L10-27 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L25-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L11-30 | |
| 7 | 10/08 | L8-19 | |
| 8 | 10/15 | W35-17 | |
| 9 | 10/28 | Win prob:29% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:19% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:30% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:58% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:16% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 0.1% | 62.4% |
| 5-3 | 2.3% | 3.5% |
| 4-4 | 12.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 33.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 37.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 14.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.4%) | 0.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Sam Houston
Florida International
Middle Tennessee
LibertyUTEP
New Mexico StateCCG: 4.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UTEPCCG: 0.5% • Scenario: 29.2%
Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26