Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
20.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W28-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L24-34 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L13-23 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L7-21 | |
| 7 | 10/08 | W19-8 | |
| 7 | 10/14 | W30-27 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:52% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:48% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:70% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 7.5% | 96.9% |
| 6-2 | 25.9% | 45.7% |
| 5-3 | 35.5% | 2.4% |
| 4-4 | 23.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 7.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 21.0% (+1.1%) | 19.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 20.2% (+0.2%) | 19.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 19.5% (-0.4%) | 22.6% (+2.6%) | |
| 6.4% (-13.6%) | 32.7% (+12.7%) | |
| 22.2% (+2.2%) | 19.0% (-0.9%) | |
| 25.9% (+5.9%) | 17.8% (-2.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Sam Houston
Florida International
Middle TennesseeLiberty
UTEP
New Mexico StateCCG: 59.1% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LibertyCCG: 32.7% • Scenario: 51.6%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.9%
7.5%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26