Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W35-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L7-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W44-41 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W38-16 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | L24-27 | |
| 8 | 10/15 | L25-38 | |
| 9 | 10/22 | W31-28 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | L30-59 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:69% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:87% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:41% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | 50.2% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 39.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 9.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oregon State
New Mexico State
UTEP
Missouri State
Middle TennesseeDelawareCCG: 1.4% • Scenario: 0.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
New Mexico StateDelawareCCG: 0.4% • Scenario: 25.5%
Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02