Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
59.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W28-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W44-41 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L21-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W35-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W20-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W43-35 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W24-20 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:94% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:72% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:90% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 67.3% | 87.8% |
| 6-2 | 30.9% | 1.4% |
| 5-3 | 1.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 59.9% (+0.3%) | 59.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 59.6% (+0.0%) | 59.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 63.3% (+3.8%) | 2.7% (-56.9%) | |
| 59.5% (-0.0%) | 59.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 52.1% (-7.4%) | 68.1% (+8.6%) | |
| 63.1% (+3.6%) | 59.0% (-0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Vanderbilt
KentuckyGeorgia
The Citadel
Missouri
LSUCCG: 81.5% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
GeorgiaMissouriCCG: 72.4% • Scenario: 43.5%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
87.8%
59.9%Any 1 loss
19.7%
35.0%
88.2%
0.6%
87.8%
6.8%
3.5%
4.1%
1.0%
23.5%Any 2 losses
2.7%
3.4%87.5%
<0.1%5.1%
0.4%2.8%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%0.9%
2.6%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02