Big Ten

Big Ten Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-09

Big TenConference Standings

T1IndianaIU7-010-099.6%
T1Ohio StOSU6-09-084.0%
T3OregonORE5-18-111.6%
T3MichiganMICH5-17-22.7%
T3USCUSC5-17-22.1%
T6IowaIOWA4-26-3-
T6MinnesotaMINN4-26-3-
8NebraskaNEB4-37-3-
T9IllinoisILL3-36-3-
T9NorthwesternNU3-35-4-
T9UCLAUCLA3-33-6-
T9WashingtonWASH3-36-3-
13RutgersRUTG2-55-5-
T14MarylandMD1-54-5-
T14WisconsinWIS1-53-6-
T16Michigan StMSU0-63-6-
T16Penn StPSU0-63-6-
T16PurduePUR0-72-8-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big Ten CCG Matchups

183.7%
IndianaIU
vs
OSUOhio St
211.3%
IndianaIU
vs
OREOregon
32.5%
IndianaIU
vs
MICHMichigan
42.1%
IndianaIU
vs
USCUSC
50.2%
Ohio StOSU
vs
OREOregon
6<0.1%
MichiganMICH
vs
OSUOhio St
7<0.1%
MichiganMICH
vs
OREOregon
8<0.1%
MichiganMICH
vs
USCUSC
9<0.1%
Ohio StOSU
vs
USCUSC
10-
IndianaIU
vs
IOWAIowa

Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11Week 12

Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big Ten CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 99.6%
Game
IndianaCCG OddsAway
IndianaCCG OddsHome
Penn StPSU@Michigan StMSU
99.6%
(+0.0%)		99.7%
(+0.1%)
MinnesotaMINN@OregonORE
99.7%
(+0.1%)		99.6%
(+0.0%)
MarylandMD@IllinoisILL
99.5%
(-0.1%)		99.6%
(+0.0%)
PurduePUR@WashingtonWASH
99.6%
(-0.0%)		99.6%
(+0.0%)
WisconsinWIS@IndianaIU
82.7%
(-16.9%)		99.8%
(+0.2%)
IowaIOWA@USCUSC
99.6%
(+0.0%)		99.6%
(-0.0%)
MichiganMICH@NorthwesternNU
99.6%
(-0.0%)		99.7%
(+0.1%)
UCLAUCLA@Ohio StOSU
98.7%
(-0.9%)		99.6%
(+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for Indiana

Michigan StMichigan StateMinnesotaMinnesota

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Indiana

IndianaIndianaOhio StOhio State

CCG: 99.8% • Scenario: 97.8%

Ways for Indiana to Clinch Big Ten CCG Spot This Week

PurduePurdueIndianaIndianaUSCUSCNorthwesternNorthwestern
0.6%
MinnesotaMinnesotaNorthwesternNorthwestern
0.5%
IndianaIndianaUSCUSCMichiganMichiganUCLAUCLA
0.5%
Michigan StMichigan StateUSCUSCNorthwesternNorthwestern
0.4%
IllinoisIllinoisPurduePurdueUSCUSCNorthwesternNorthwestern
0.4%
IllinoisIllinoisIndianaIndianaUSCUSCUCLAUCLA
0.4%
MarylandMarylandPurduePurdueIndianaIndianaNorthwesternNorthwestern
0.4%
Michigan StMichigan StatePurduePurdue
0.3%
MarylandMarylandIndianaIndianaMichiganMichiganUCLAUCLA
0.2%
MinnesotaMinnesotaPurduePurdue
0.2%

+5 more clinching scenarios

Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-2Overall
IndianaIU100%82.6%9.1%99.6%
Ohio StOSU100%12.6%-84.0%
OregonORE-18.2%<0.1%11.6%
MichiganMICH-24.3%-2.7%
USCUSC-17.2%-2.1%
IllinoisILL----
IowaIOWA--<0.1%-
MarylandMD----
Michigan StMSU----
MinnesotaMINN----
NebraskaNEB----
NorthwesternNU----
Penn StPSU----
PurduePUR----
RutgersRUTG----
UCLAUCLA----
WashingtonWASH----
WisconsinWIS----

Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
IndianaIU(7-0)97.8%2.2%<0.1%-------9.0
Ohio StOSU(6-0)81.7%17.9%0.3%0.0%------8.8
OregonORE(5-1)-63.4%32.2%4.3%0.1%-----7.6
MichiganMICH(5-1)-11.1%61.3%25.1%2.6%-----6.8
USCUSC(5-1)-12.3%51.9%34.6%1.2%-----6.8
IowaIOWA(4-2)--31.9%52.7%15.0%0.4%----6.2
MinnesotaMINN(4-2)--1.0%31.8%49.9%17.3%----5.2
IllinoisILL(3-3)---30.1%44.7%21.8%3.5%---5.0
WashingtonWASH(3-3)---11.8%68.5%18.6%1.1%---4.9
NebraskaNEB(4-3)---2.9%30.8%66.2%----4.4
NorthwesternNU(3-3)---2.8%22.6%48.0%26.6%---4.0
UCLAUCLA(3-3)---0.0%0.8%20.1%79.1%---3.2
Penn StPSU(0-6)------78.2%20.2%1.6%<0.1%2.8
MarylandMD(1-5)-----3.9%27.5%51.0%17.6%-2.2
RutgersRUTG(2-5)-----<0.1%7.3%92.6%--2.1
WisconsinWIS(1-5)-----0.2%13.0%45.8%41.1%-1.7
Michigan StMSU(0-6)------<0.1%2.4%34.0%63.6%0.4
PurduePUR(0-7)-------<0.1%8.0%91.9%0.1

Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com