Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L13-24 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W63-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W30-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W24-10 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L13-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W24-7 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W31-20 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W21-16 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:83% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:81% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:16% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 11.1% | 24.3% |
| 7-2 | 61.3% | 0% |
| 6-3 | 25.1% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 2.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.7% (-0.0%) | 2.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 9.9% (+7.2%) | 2.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 2.7% (-0.0%) | 2.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.8% (+0.1%) | 2.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.6% (+3.9%) | 2.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.9% (+1.3%) | 1.7% (-1.0%) | |
| 3.2% (+0.5%) | 0.0% (-2.7%) | |
| 3.3% (+0.6%) | 2.7% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Michigan State
Wisconsin
UCLACCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IowaMichiganCCG: 4.7% • Scenario: 36.4%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
24.3%
11.1%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09