Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W59-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W69-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W41-7 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W30-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L20-30 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W56-10 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W21-7 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W18-16 | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:97% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:77% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 63.4% | 18.2% |
| 7-2 | 32.2% | 0.1% |
| 6-3 | 4.3% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 11.6% (+0.0%) | 11.0% (-0.6%) | |
| 0.0% (-11.6%) | 12.0% (+0.4%) | |
| 11.7% (+0.1%) | 11.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.6% (-0.0%) | 11.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.9% (+1.3%) | 11.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.6% (-0.0%) | 11.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.6% (+0.0%) | 11.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 64.0% (+52.4%) | 11.1% (-0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Michigan State
Wisconsin
UCLACCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OregonUCLACCG: 65.8% • Scenario: 1.0%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
18.2%
63.4%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09