Big XII Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 78 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 BYUBYU UtahUTAH	BYUBYUTexas TechTTU	8.0%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 Arizona StateASU BYUBYU UtahUTAH	Arizona StateASUTexas TechTTU	5.5%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 BYUBYU CincinnatiCIN UtahUTAH	CCG participants not 100% certain Texas TechTTUUtahUTAH 63.5% BYUBYUTexas TechTTU 36.5%	4.3%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 Arizona StateASU BYUBYU	Arizona StateASUTexas TechTTU	3.6%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 CincinnatiCIN UtahUTAH	Texas TechTTUUtahUTAH	3.4%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 Arizona StateASU BYUBYU CincinnatiCIN UtahUTAH	Texas TechTTUUtahUTAH	2.9%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 BYUBYU CincinnatiCIN	CCG participants not 100% certain CincinnatiCINTexas TechTTU 68.6% BYUBYUTexas TechTTU 31.4%	2.9%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 Arizona StateASU CincinnatiCIN UtahUTAH	Texas TechTTUUtahUTAH	2.3%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 Arizona StateASU UtahUTAH	Texas TechTTUUtahUTAH	2.0%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 Arizona StateASU BYUBYU CincinnatiCIN	CCG participants not 100% certain BYUBYUTexas TechTTU 96.6% Arizona StateASUTexas TechTTU 3.4%	1.9%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 Arizona StateASU CincinnatiCIN	Arizona StateASUTexas TechTTU	1.6%
7-2 BYUBYU Texas TechTTU UtahUTAH	BYUBYUTexas TechTTU	1.1%
8-1 BYUBYU 7-2 Texas TechTTU UtahUTAH	BYUBYUTexas TechTTU	1.0%
7-2 Arizona StateASU BYUBYU Texas TechTTU UtahUTAH	CCG participants not 100% certain Texas TechTTUUtahUTAH 52.5% Arizona StateASUTexas TechTTU 43.8% BYUBYUUtahUTAH 3.5%	0.8%
8-1 BYUBYU 7-2 Arizona StateASU Texas TechTTU UtahUTAH	CCG participants not 100% certain BYUBYUUtahUTAH 97.0% BYUBYUTexas TechTTU 2.9%	0.7%
7-2 BYUBYU CincinnatiCIN Texas TechTTU UtahUTAH	CCG participants not 100% certain BYUBYUUtahUTAH 43.4% Texas TechTTUUtahUTAH 39.7% BYUBYUTexas TechTTU 16.9%	0.6%
7-2 Arizona StateASU BYUBYU Texas TechTTU	CCG participants not 100% certain Arizona StateASUTexas TechTTU 62.1% Arizona StateASUBYUBYU 37.9%	0.5%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 BYUBYU HoustonHOU UtahUTAH	BYUBYUTexas TechTTU	0.5%
7-2 CincinnatiCIN Texas TechTTU UtahUTAH	Texas TechTTUUtahUTAH	0.5%
7-2 Arizona StateASU BYUBYU CincinnatiCIN Texas TechTTU UtahUTAH	Texas TechTTUUtahUTAH	0.4%
8-1 BYUBYU 7-2 Arizona StateASU Texas TechTTU	Arizona StateASUBYUBYU	0.4%
7-2 BYUBYU CincinnatiCIN Texas TechTTU	CCG participants not 100% certain BYUBYUTexas TechTTU 75.6% CincinnatiCINTexas TechTTU 24.4%	0.4%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 BYUBYU HoustonHOU	CCG participants not 100% certain HoustonHOUTexas TechTTU 70.1% BYUBYUTexas TechTTU 29.9%	0.4%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 Arizona StateASU BYUBYU HoustonHOU UtahUTAH	Arizona StateASUTexas TechTTU	0.3%
7-2 Arizona StateASU CincinnatiCIN Texas TechTTU UtahUTAH	CCG participants not 100% certain Texas TechTTUUtahUTAH 97.9% Arizona StateASUTexas TechTTU 2.1%	0.3%
7-2 Arizona StateASU BYUBYU CincinnatiCIN Texas TechTTU	CCG participants not 100% certain BYUBYUTexas TechTTU 97.5% Arizona StateASUTexas TechTTU 2.5%	0.3%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 BYUBYU CincinnatiCIN HoustonHOU UtahUTAH	CCG participants not 100% certain Texas TechTTUUtahUTAH 93.3% BYUBYUTexas TechTTU 6.7%	0.3%
7-2 Arizona StateASU Texas TechTTU UtahUTAH	CCG participants not 100% certain Arizona StateASUUtahUTAH 75.5% Arizona StateASUTexas TechTTU 23.1% Texas TechTTUUtahUTAH 1.5%	0.3%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 Arizona StateASU BYUBYU HoustonHOU	Arizona StateASUTexas TechTTU	0.3%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 CincinnatiCIN HoustonHOU UtahUTAH	Texas TechTTUUtahUTAH	0.2%
8-1 BYUBYU 7-2 CincinnatiCIN Texas TechTTU UtahUTAH	BYUBYUTexas TechTTU	0.2%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 Arizona StateASU BYUBYU CincinnatiCIN HoustonHOU UtahUTAH	Texas TechTTUUtahUTAH	0.2%
7-2 Arizona StateASU CincinnatiCIN Texas TechTTU	Arizona StateASUTexas TechTTU	0.2%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 HoustonHOU UtahUTAH	Texas TechTTUUtahUTAH	0.2%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 BYUBYU CincinnatiCIN HoustonHOU	CCG participants not 100% certain BYUBYUTexas TechTTU 65.3% CincinnatiCINTexas TechTTU 34.7%	0.2%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 CincinnatiCIN HoustonHOU	CCG participants not 100% certain HoustonHOUTexas TechTTU 89.5% CincinnatiCINTexas TechTTU 10.5%	0.1%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 Arizona StateASU HoustonHOU UtahUTAH	Arizona StateASUTexas TechTTU	0.1%
8-1 BYUBYU 7-2 Arizona StateASU CincinnatiCIN Texas TechTTU UtahUTAH	BYUBYUUtahUTAH	0.1%
8-1 CincinnatiCIN 7-2 BYUBYU Texas TechTTU UtahUTAH	CincinnatiCINTexas TechTTU	0.1%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 Arizona StateASU CincinnatiCIN HoustonHOU UtahUTAH	CCG participants not 100% certain Texas TechTTUUtahUTAH 92.9% Arizona StateASUTexas TechTTU 7.1%	0.1%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 Arizona StateASU BYUBYU CincinnatiCIN HoustonHOU	Arizona StateASUTexas TechTTU	0.1%
8-1 CincinnatiCIN 7-2 Texas TechTTU UtahUTAH	CincinnatiCINTexas TechTTU	0.1%
8-1 BYUBYU 7-2 CincinnatiCIN Texas TechTTU	BYUBYUTexas TechTTU	0.1%
8-1 CincinnatiCIN 7-2 Arizona StateASU Texas TechTTU UtahUTAH	CincinnatiCINUtahUTAH	0.1%
8-1 CincinnatiCIN 7-2 BYUBYU Texas TechTTU	CincinnatiCINTexas TechTTU	0.1%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 Arizona StateASU CincinnatiCIN HoustonHOU	CCG participants not 100% certain HoustonHOUTexas TechTTU 95.7% Arizona StateASUTexas TechTTU 4.3%	<0.1%
8-1 Texas TechTTU 7-2 Arizona StateASU HoustonHOU	HoustonHOUTexas TechTTU	<0.1%
7-2 BYUBYU HoustonHOU Texas TechTTU UtahUTAH	BYUBYUTexas TechTTU	<0.1%
8-1 CincinnatiCIN 7-2 Arizona StateASU BYUBYU Texas TechTTU UtahUTAH	CCG participants not 100% certain CincinnatiCINUtahUTAH 51.2% Arizona StateASUCincinnatiCIN 48.8%	<0.1%
8-1 CincinnatiCIN 7-2 Arizona StateASU Texas TechTTU	Arizona StateASUCincinnatiCIN	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head record → Record against the highest-placed common opponent → Next-highest, etc. → Strength of schedule → Total wins

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.