Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
52.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W69-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W27-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W34-13 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-21 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | W38-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W33-27 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W24-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W41-27 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | L7-29 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:61% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:80% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 29.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 45.3% | 48.2% |
| 6-3 | 21.9% | 1.6% |
| 5-4 | 3.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 55.3% (+3.3%) | 49.8% (-2.2%) | |
| 57.9% (+5.9%) | 51.5% (-0.5%) | |
| 51.9% (-0.1%) | 53.5% (+1.6%) | |
| 63.7% (+11.8%) | 50.3% (-1.7%) | |
| 51.3% (-0.7%) | 55.4% (+3.4%) | |
| 30.0% (-22.0%) | 66.0% (+14.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Arizona
UCF
Oklahoma State
West VirginiaBYUCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BYUCCG: 66.0% • Scenario: 61.0%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
29.8%Any 1 loss
48.2%
45.3%
60.5%
18.9%60.3%
7.5%
31.1%
18.9%Any 2 losses
1.6%
21.9%3.6%
4.7%2.0%
4.9%0.7%
12.3%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09