Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
22.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W43-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W63-9 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-6 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W48-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W42-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L21-24 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W53-7 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W45-14 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:82% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:84% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:87% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 60.1% | 35.9% |
| 6-3 | 33.5% | 3.4% |
| 5-4 | 6.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 21.4% (-1.3%) | 23.5% (+0.9%) | |
| 36.2% (+13.5%) | 21.5% (-1.2%) | |
| 22.8% (+0.1%) | 20.2% (-2.5%) | |
| 20.8% (-1.9%) | 23.0% (+0.3%) | |
| 27.1% (+4.5%) | 2.0% (-20.7%) | |
| 32.3% (+9.6%) | 16.6% (-6.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Cincinnati
UCF
Kansas State
Arizona StateUtah
TCUCCG: 55.6% • Scenario: 1.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UtahTCUCCG: 38.3% • Scenario: 32.1%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
35.9%
60.1%Any 1 loss
3.4%
33.5%3.8%
11.5%
3.6%
9.0%
2.8%
12.9%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09