Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-09
Conference Standings
| 1 |  Texas TechTTU | 6-1 | 9-1 | 97.2% | |
| T2 |  BYUBYU | 5-1 | 8-1 | 52.0% | |
| T2 |  CincinnatiCIN | 5-1 | 7-2 | 11.4% | |
| 4 |  HoustonHOU | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0.8% | |
| T5 |  UtahUTAH | 4-2 | 7-2 | 22.7% | |
| T5 |  Arizona StateASU | 4-2 | 6-3 | 15.8% | |
| T7 |  TCUTCU | 3-3 | 6-3 | 0.1% | |
| T7 |  BaylorBAY | 3-3 | 5-4 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  Kansas StateKSU | 3-3 | 4-5 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  ArizonaARIZ | 3-3 | 6-3 | - | |
| T11 |  Iowa StateISU | 3-4 | 6-4 | - | |
| T11 |  KansasKU | 3-4 | 5-5 | - | |
| 13 |  West VirginiaWVU | 2-5 | 4-6 | - | |
| 14 |  UCFUCF | 1-5 | 4-5 | - | |
| 15 |  ColoradoCOLO | 1-6 | 3-7 | - | |
| 16 |  Oklahoma StateOKST | 0-6 | 1-8 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 97.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 97.4% (+0.3%) | 97.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 77.2% (-20.0%) | 99.0% (+1.8%) | |
| 97.2% (+0.0%) | 97.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 99.1% (+1.9%) | 96.9% (-0.3%) | |
| 97.1% (-0.1%) | 97.4% (+0.3%) | |
| 98.2% (+1.1%) | 96.5% (-0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
ArizonaTexas TechWest VirginiaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 4.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Texas TechCCG: 99.0% • Scenario: 91.8%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
ArizonaTexas TechWest VirginiaTexas TechWest VirginiaTCUTexas TechWest VirginiaBaylorCincinnatiOklahoma StateBaylorTCUOklahoma StateWest VirginiaUtahTCUData from 2025-11-09
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas TechTTU | 100% | 80.3% | 3.6% | 97.2% |
| BYUBYU | 100% | 48.2% | 1.6% | 52.0% |
| UtahUTAH | - | 35.9% | 3.4% | 22.7% |
| Arizona StateASU | - | 37.6% | 1.4% | 15.8% |
| CincinnatiCIN | 100% | 15.5% | <0.1% | 11.4% |
| HoustonHOU | - | 12.6% | <0.1% | 0.8% |
| TCUTCU | - | - | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| BaylorBAY | - | - | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Kansas StateKSU | - | - | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| ArizonaARIZ | - | - | <0.1% | - |
| ColoradoCOLO | - | - | - | - |
| Iowa StateISU | - | - | - | - |
| KansasKU | - | - | - | - |
| Oklahoma StateOKST | - | - | - | - |
| UCFUCF | - | - | - | - |
| West VirginiaWVU | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-09
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas TechTTU(6-1) | 87.3% | 12.3% | 0.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7.9 |
| BYUBYU(5-1) | 29.8% | 45.3% | 21.9% | 3.0% | - | - | - | - | - | 7.0 |
| UtahUTAH(4-2) | - | 60.1% | 33.5% | 6.1% | 0.4% | - | - | - | - | 6.5 |
| CincinnatiCIN(5-1) | 6.5% | 31.5% | 44.4% | 17.7% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.3 |
| Arizona StateASU(4-2) | - | 40.5% | 44.0% | 14.4% | 1.2% | - | - | - | - | 6.2 |
| HoustonHOU(5-2) | - | 6.1% | 37.2% | 56.7% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| Kansas StateKSU(3-3) | - | - | 13.9% | 75.0% | 10.9% | 0.3% | - | - | - | 5.0 |
| TCUTCU(3-3) | - | - | 20.8% | 47.6% | 27.1% | 4.5% | - | - | - | 4.8 |
| Iowa StateISU(3-4) | - | - | - | 58.8% | 39.1% | 2.1% | - | - | - | 4.6 |
| BaylorBAY(3-3) | - | - | 6.6% | 39.9% | 43.8% | 9.7% | - | - | - | 4.4 |
| ArizonaARIZ(3-3) | - | - | 7.5% | 31.5% | 42.6% | 18.3% | - | - | - | 4.3 |
| KansasKU(3-4) | - | - | - | 4.9% | 40.8% | 54.3% | - | - | - | 3.5 |
| UCFUCF(1-5) | - | - | - | - | 1.6% | 23.9% | 71.4% | 3.2% | - | 2.2 |
| West VirginiaWVU(2-5) | - | - | - | - | 0.6% | 16.5% | 82.9% | - | - | 2.2 |
| ColoradoCOLO(1-6) | - | - | - | - | - | 2.8% | 31.9% | 65.3% | - | 1.4 |
| Oklahoma StateOKST(0-6) | - | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | 0.5% | 11.9% | 87.5% | 0.1 |
Data from 2025-11-09