Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L17-20 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W34-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W70-0 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W37-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W38-30 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W20-11 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W49-17 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W41-20 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | L14-45 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:60% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:39% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:28% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 6.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 31.5% | 15.5% |
| 6-3 | 44.4% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 17.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.4% (-8.9%) | 17.4% (+6.0%) | |
| 10.1% (-1.3%) | 11.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 11.3% (-0.0%) | 11.6% (+0.3%) | |
| 14.6% (+3.3%) | 10.9% (-0.5%) | |
| 9.8% (-1.6%) | 18.8% (+7.5%) | |
| 12.2% (+0.8%) | 10.8% (-0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Cincinnati
UCF
Oklahoma State
West Virginia
BaylorCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CincinnatiCCG: 17.4% • Scenario: 59.7%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
6.5%Any 1 loss
15.5%
31.5%
21.7%
16.8%
21.2%
4.5%
2.8%
10.3%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09