SEC

SEC Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-09

SECConference Standings

T1AlabamaALA6-08-193.8%
T1Texas A&MTA&M6-09-035.8%
3GeorgiaUGA6-18-152.7%
4MississippiMISS5-19-19.8%
5TexasTEX4-17-27.9%
6VanderbiltVAN4-28-2-
7OklahomaOU3-27-2<0.1%
8TennesseeTENN3-36-3-
9MissouriMIZ2-36-3-
T10FloridaFLA2-43-6-
T10LSULSU2-45-4-
12KentuckyUK2-54-5-
13Mississippi StMSST1-55-5-
T14AuburnAUB1-64-6-
T14South CarolinaSC1-63-6-
16ArkansasARK0-52-7-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely SEC CCG Matchups

147.7%
AlabamaALA
vs
UGAGeorgia
231.2%
AlabamaALA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
37.5%
AlabamaALA
vs
TEXTexas
47.4%
AlabamaALA
vs
MISSMississippi
53.5%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
61.5%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
MISSMississippi
70.8%
MississippiMISS
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
80.3%
TexasTEX
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
9<0.1%
MississippiMISS
vs
TEXTexas
10<0.1%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TEXTexas
11<0.1%
OklahomaOU
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
12<0.1%
OklahomaOU
vs
TEXTexas
13<0.1%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
OUOklahoma
14<0.1%
MississippiMISS
vs
OUOklahoma
15-
AlabamaALA
vs
OUOklahoma

Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11Week 12

Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on SEC CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 93.8%
Game
AlabamaCCG OddsAway
AlabamaCCG OddsHome
ArkansasARK@LSULSU
92.9%
(-0.9%)		94.1%
(+0.4%)
OklahomaOU@AlabamaALA
79.9%
(-13.9%)		97.3%
(+3.5%)
Tennessee TechTNTC@KentuckyUK
94.1%
(+0.3%)		93.7%
(-0.0%)
FloridaFLA@MississippiMISS
89.4%
(-4.3%)		94.3%
(+0.5%)
TexasTEX@GeorgiaUGA
95.9%
(+2.1%)		92.9%
(-0.9%)
New Mexico StNMSU@TennesseeTENN
94.0%
(+0.2%)		93.8%
(+0.0%)
South CarolinaSC@Texas A&MTA&M
96.0%
(+2.2%)		93.3%
(-0.4%)
Mississippi StMSST@MissouriMIZ
91.4%
(-2.4%)		94.2%
(+0.4%)

Best Winner Combination for Alabama

AlabamaAlabamaTexasTexasSouth CarolinaSouth Carolina

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 4.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Alabama

AlabamaAlabamaMississippiOle Miss

CCG: 98.0% • Scenario: 71.3%

Ways for Alabama to Clinch SEC CCG Spot This Week

AlabamaAlabamaTexasTexasSouth CarolinaSouth Carolina
4.0%
AlabamaAlabamaMississippiOle MissNew Mexico StNew Mexico StateSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaMissouriMissouri
0.2%
AlabamaAlabamaTennessee TechTennessee TechMississippiOle MissSouth CarolinaSouth CarolinaMississippi StMississippi State
0.2%
ArkansasArkansasAlabamaAlabamaTexasTexasNew Mexico StNew Mexico State
0.1%

Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-07-16-2Overall
AlabamaALA100%91.7%1.8%93.8%
GeorgiaUGA-75.0%0.2%52.7%
Texas A&MTA&M100%13.4%-35.8%
MississippiMISS-12.1%-9.8%
TexasTEX-43.3%0.1%7.9%
OklahomaOU--0.4%<0.1%
ArkansasARK----
AuburnAUB----
FloridaFLA----
KentuckyUK----
LSULSU----
Mississippi StMSST----
MissouriMIZ----
South CarolinaSC----
TennesseeTENN----
VanderbiltVAN----

Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com

SECFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
AlabamaALA(6-0)65.1%31.2%3.7%------7.6
Texas A&MTA&M(6-0)27.6%61.2%11.2%------7.2
MississippiMISS(5-1)-80.8%18.2%1.0%-----6.8
GeorgiaUGA(6-1)-70.3%29.8%------6.7
TexasTEX(4-1)-18.0%53.1%26.6%2.3%----5.9
VanderbiltVAN(4-2)--30.0%59.6%10.5%----5.2
OklahomaOU(3-2)--8.5%43.4%38.9%9.2%---4.5
TennesseeTENN(3-3)---41.5%45.7%12.8%---4.3
MissouriMIZ(2-3)---23.2%49.8%24.2%2.8%--3.9
LSULSU(2-4)----20.8%58.5%20.6%--3.0
FloridaFLA(2-4)----3.8%38.8%57.5%--2.5
KentuckyUK(2-5)-----16.1%83.9%--2.2
Mississippi StMSST(1-5)-----1.4%21.3%77.4%-1.2
AuburnAUB(1-6)------18.5%81.5%-1.2
South CarolinaSC(1-6)------16.8%83.2%-1.2
ArkansasARK(0-5)-----1.0%12.5%43.0%43.6%0.7

Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com