Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
93.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L17-31 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W73-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-21 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W30-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W27-24 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W37-20 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W29-22 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W20-9 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:80% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 65.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 31.2% | 91.7% |
| 6-2 | 3.7% | 1.8% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 92.9% (-0.9%) | 94.1% (+0.4%) | |
| 79.9% (-13.9%) | 97.3% (+3.5%) | |
| 94.1% (+0.3%) | 93.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 89.4% (-4.3%) | 94.3% (+0.5%) | |
| 95.9% (+2.1%) | 92.9% (-0.9%) | |
| 94.0% (+0.2%) | 93.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 96.0% (+2.2%) | 93.3% (-0.4%) | |
| 91.4% (-2.4%) | 94.2% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Alabama
Texas
South CarolinaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 4.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Alabama
Ole MissCCG: 98.0% • Scenario: 71.3%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
AlabamaTexasSouth CarolinaAlabamaOle Miss
New Mexico StateSouth Carolina
MissouriAlabama
Tennessee TechOle MissSouth Carolina
Mississippi State
ArkansasAlabamaTexasNew Mexico StateData from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
58.6%Any 1 loss
93.3%
34.6%
100.0%
6.5%
97.5%
14.8%
85.3%
13.2%Any 2 losses
45.0%
6.5%97.5%
1.6%84.9%
1.5%1.8%
3.4%1.6%
0.4%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09