Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W63-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W30-23 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W41-35 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-19 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W24-21 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L35-43 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W34-26 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W30-14 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W49-0 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:89% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:90% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 80.8% | 12.1% |
| 6-2 | 18.2% | 0% |
| 5-3 | 1.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.3% (-0.6%) | 10.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 16.4% (+6.6%) | 8.2% (-1.7%) | |
| 9.9% (+0.1%) | 9.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-9.8%) | 11.0% (+1.2%) | |
| 28.0% (+18.2%) | 2.1% (-7.7%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.0%) | 9.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.2% (+2.4%) | 9.3% (-0.5%) | |
| 11.1% (+1.3%) | 9.6% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Tennessee TechOle Miss
Texas
New Mexico StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Ole MissTexasCCG: 31.3% • Scenario: 26.6%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
12.1%
80.8%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09