Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L7-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W55-0 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L21-29 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W23-6 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W16-13 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W45-38 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W34-31 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:30% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:67% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 18.0% | 43.3% |
| 6-2 | 53.1% | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 26.6% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 2.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.1% (+1.2%) | 7.4% (-0.5%) | |
| 11.9% (+4.0%) | 6.9% (-1.0%) | |
| 8.3% (+0.4%) | 7.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 18.6% (+10.7%) | 6.6% (-1.3%) | |
| 26.5% (+18.6%) | 0.0% (-7.9%) | |
| 8.3% (+0.4%) | 7.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 17.9% (+10.0%) | 5.9% (-2.0%) | |
| 9.3% (+1.4%) | 7.6% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Arkansas
Oklahoma
FloridaTexas
New Mexico StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TexasCCG: 26.5% • Scenario: 29.8%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
43.3%
18.0%Any 1 loss
0.6%
10.8%1.1%
2.0%
0.5%
8.8%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09