Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-16

Atlantic Coast ConferenceConference Standings

1Georgia TechGT6-19-153.0%
T2SMUSMU5-17-359.8%
T2PittsburghPITT5-17-317.1%
4VirginiaUVA6-29-246.1%
T5DukeDUKE4-25-514.1%
T5Miami FLMIA4-28-29.8%
T7LouisvilleLOU4-37-3-
T7Wake ForestWAKE4-37-3-
T9ClemsonCLEM4-45-5-
T9CaliforniaCAL3-36-4-
11NC StateNCSU3-45-5-
T12North CarolinaUNC2-44-6-
T12Virginia TechVT2-43-7-
T14Florida StFSU2-55-5-
T14StanfordSTAN2-53-7-
16SyracuseSYR1-63-7-
17Boston CollegeBC0-71-10-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Matchups

130.4%
Georgia TechGT
vs
SMUSMU
216.1%
Georgia TechGT
vs
UVAVirginia
315.1%
SMUSMU
vs
UVAVirginia
49.4%
PittsburghPITT
vs
SMUSMU
56.5%
DukeDUKE
vs
UVAVirginia
64.9%
PittsburghPITT
vs
UVAVirginia
73.6%
DukeDUKE
vs
GTGeorgia Tech
83.5%
Miami FLMIA
vs
UVAVirginia
92.9%
Miami FLMIA
vs
SMUSMU
102.2%
Georgia TechGT
vs
PITTPittsburgh
112.0%
DukeDUKE
vs
MIAMiami FL
122.0%
DukeDUKE
vs
SMUSMU
130.8%
Georgia TechGT
vs
MIAMiami FL
140.6%
Miami FLMIA
vs
PITTPittsburgh
15<0.1%
DukeDUKE
vs
PITTPittsburgh

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11Week 12Week 13

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 59.8%
Game
SMUCCG OddsAway
SMUCCG OddsHome
FurmanFUR@ClemsonCLEM
58.8%
(-1.0%)		59.9%
(+0.1%)
DelawareDEL@Wake ForestWAKE
59.9%
(+0.1%)		59.8%
(-0.0%)
SyracuseSYR@Notre DameND
61.6%
(+1.8%)		59.8%
(-0.0%)
DukeDUKE@North CarolinaUNC
58.7%
(-1.1%)		62.9%
(+3.1%)
Miami FLMIA@Virginia TechVT
59.8%
(-0.0%)		60.0%
(+0.2%)
PittsburghPITT@Georgia TechGT
59.0%
(-0.8%)		60.6%
(+0.8%)
LouisvilleLOU@SMUSMU
4.3%
(-55.5%)		86.4%
(+26.6%)
CaliforniaCAL@StanfordSTAN
60.1%
(+0.3%)		59.2%
(-0.6%)
Florida StFSU@NC StateNCSU
59.9%
(+0.1%)		59.7%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for SMU

FurmanFurmanSyracuseSyracuseVirginia TechVirginia TechSMUSMU

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for SMU

SMUSMU

CCG: 86.4% • Scenario: 67.6%

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team7-17-26-26-3Overall
SMUSMU100%-5.9%-59.8%
Georgia TechGT100%-6.3%-53.0%
VirginiaUVA-62.4%-<0.1%46.1%
PittsburghPITT100%-3.6%-17.1%
DukeDUKE--23.3%-14.1%
Miami FLMIA--15.8%-9.8%
Boston CollegeBC-----
CaliforniaCAL-----
ClemsonCLEM-----
Florida StFSU-----
LouisvilleLOU-----
NC StateNCSU-----
North CarolinaUNC-----
StanfordSTAN-----
SyracuseSYR-----
Virginia TechVT-----
Wake ForestWAKE-----

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team7-17-26-26-35-35-44-44-53-53-62-61-70-8Avg Wins
VirginiaUVA(6-2)-73.8%0.0%26.2%---------6.7
SMUSMU(5-1)57.6%0.0%37.6%0.0%4.8%--------6.5
Georgia TechGT(6-1)49.9%0.0%50.1%----------6.5
PittsburghPITT(5-1)15.3%0.0%50.1%0.0%34.5%--------5.8
Miami FLMIA(4-2)--62.2%0.0%34.7%0.0%3.1%------5.6
DukeDUKE(4-2)--60.7%0.0%34.7%0.0%4.6%------5.6
LouisvilleLOU(4-3)----32.4%0.0%67.6%------4.3
Wake ForestWAKE(4-3)----17.4%0.0%82.6%------4.2
NC StateNCSU(3-4)-----30.0%0.0%53.3%0.0%16.7%---4.1
ClemsonCLEM(4-4)------100%------4.0
CaliforniaCAL(3-3)----9.8%0.0%61.6%0.0%28.5%----3.8
Florida StFSU(2-5)--------57.9%0.0%42.1%--2.6
North CarolinaUNC(2-4)------7.7%0.0%40.0%0.0%52.3%--2.6
Virginia TechVT(2-4)------2.6%0.0%31.1%0.0%66.3%--2.4
StanfordSTAN(2-5)--------33.5%0.0%66.5%--2.3
SyracuseSYR(1-6)----------58.7%41.3%-1.6
Boston CollegeBC(0-7)-----------41.3%58.7%0.4

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com