Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
14.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W45-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L19-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L27-34 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-33 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W38-3 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W45-21 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L18-27 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W46-45 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | L34-37 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | L17-34 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:73% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 60.7% | 23.3% |
| 5-3 | 34.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 4.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 13.9% (-0.3%) | 14.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 14.0% (-0.1%) | 14.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 14.0% (-0.2%) | 14.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.2% (+5.1%) | 0.0% (-14.1%) | |
| 14.4% (+0.2%) | 12.0% (-2.1%) | |
| 21.6% (+7.5%) | 6.6% (-7.5%) | |
| 28.4% (+14.3%) | 7.3% (-6.8%) | |
| 14.8% (+0.7%) | 12.7% (-1.4%) | |
| 14.1% (+0.0%) | 14.1% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Furman
Delaware
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
LouisvilleCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
DukeLouisvilleCCG: 38.7% • Scenario: 23.8%
Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16