Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
17.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W61-9 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L24-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L27-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W48-7 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W30-13 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W53-34 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W35-20 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | L15-37 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:50% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:31% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 15.3% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 50.1% | 3.6% |
| 5-3 | 34.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 17.1% (-0.0%) | 17.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 17.2% (+0.0%) | 17.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 17.3% (+0.2%) | 17.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 16.3% (-0.8%) | 19.3% (+2.2%) | |
| 16.5% (-0.7%) | 22.9% (+5.8%) | |
| 33.3% (+16.1%) | 0.9% (-16.2%) | |
| 19.0% (+1.9%) | 16.2% (-0.9%) | |
| 16.9% (-0.2%) | 17.6% (+0.5%) | |
| 17.5% (+0.3%) | 16.7% (-0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Furman
Delaware
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
SMUCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
PittsburghCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 50.1%
Data from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
15.3%Any 1 loss
3.6%
50.1%
3.8%
34.7%
3.1%
15.4%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16