Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
59.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L45-48 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-35 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-18 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W35-24 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L12-13 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W26-20 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W45-13 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:68% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 57.6% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 37.6% | 5.9% |
| 5-3 | 4.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 58.8% (-1.0%) | 59.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 59.9% (+0.1%) | 59.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 61.6% (+1.8%) | 59.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 58.7% (-1.1%) | 62.9% (+3.1%) | |
| 59.8% (-0.0%) | 60.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 59.0% (-0.8%) | 60.6% (+0.8%) | |
| 4.3% (-55.5%) | 86.4% (+26.6%) | |
| 60.1% (+0.3%) | 59.2% (-0.6%) | |
| 59.9% (+0.1%) | 59.7% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Furman
Syracuse
Virginia TechSMUCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
SMUCCG: 86.4% • Scenario: 67.6%
Data from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
57.6%Any 1 loss
5.9%
37.6%
8.4%
10.0%
5.0%
27.6%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16